Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Paychex (PAYX)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 31 Aug 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 13:10.

Starts from TTM through 31 Aug 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 119.50. Growth begins at 6.5% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 46.5%, net 27.4%, free cash flow 30.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 5.1 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (5.5%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 83.19Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 59.19 to USD 125.92
-30%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

5.4%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 10.23BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 2.80BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 3.12BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 7.06Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 142.96Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 119.50
7.3%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 1.04B USD 2.08B USD 3.12B USD 4.16B FY2022 FY2024 FY2026 TTM through 31 Aug 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 0.4% USD 2.32B 1.4%
Base 5.5% USD 3.12B 4.5%
Bull 10.6% USD 4.16B 7.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 31 Aug 2026– USD 6.60BUSD 3.07BUSD 1.81BUSD 2.02B 5.065.664.5610.39119.50
Year 15.5% USD 6.96BUSD 3.24BUSD 1.90BUSD 2.13B 5.345.964.8110.93120.29
Year 25.8% USD 7.37BUSD 3.43BUSD 2.02BUSD 2.25B 5.656.315.0811.50121.18
Year 35.7% USD 7.79BUSD 3.62BUSD 2.13BUSD 2.38B 5.976.675.3712.10121.65
Year 45.3% USD 8.20BUSD 3.81BUSD 2.24BUSD 2.50B 6.297.025.6512.73121.29
Year 54.8% USD 8.59BUSD 4.00BUSD 2.35BUSD 2.62B 6.597.365.9313.39120.07
Year 64.4% USD 8.97BUSD 4.18BUSD 2.45BUSD 2.74B 6.887.686.1914.08125.36
Year 74.0% USD 9.33BUSD 4.34BUSD 2.55BUSD 2.85B 7.157.996.4414.80130.35
Year 83.6% USD 9.66BUSD 4.50BUSD 2.64BUSD 2.95B 7.418.276.6615.54134.98
Year 93.1% USD 9.96BUSD 4.64BUSD 2.72BUSD 3.04B 7.648.536.8716.31139.20
Year 102.7% USD 10.23BUSD 4.76BUSD 2.80BUSD 3.12B 7.858.767.0617.10142.96

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.