Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Pets at Home Group Plc (PETS.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; Fiscal year 2026; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:12.

Starts from Fiscal year 2026 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 2.58. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 3.6% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 3.0% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 14.1%, net 4.3%, free cash flow 10.0% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
Starting growth was capped from 3.6% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (2.3%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 3.45Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range GBP 2.42 to GBP 5.21
34%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value; free cash flow is more than 2x earnings, so the cash-flow value may be overstated.

5.9%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 1.95BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 83.90MNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 195.33MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.10Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 3.72Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 2.58
16.5%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

GBP 0 GBP 68.34M GBP 136.69M GBP 205.03M GBP 273.38M FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 Fiscal year 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -3.7% GBP 137.58M -0.7%
Base 2.3% GBP 195.33M 2.9%
Bull 8.3% GBP 273.38M 6.4%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2026– GBP 1.47BGBP 207.40MGBP 63.10MGBP 146.90M 0.140.320.072.122.58
Year 12.3% GBP 1.50BGBP 212.11MGBP 64.53MGBP 150.23M 0.140.330.082.182.68
Year 22.6% GBP 1.54BGBP 217.70MGBP 66.23MGBP 154.19M 0.140.340.082.252.80
Year 33.0% GBP 1.59BGBP 224.23MGBP 68.22MGBP 158.82M 0.150.350.082.322.93
Year 43.0% GBP 1.64BGBP 230.95MGBP 70.27MGBP 163.58M 0.150.360.082.393.07
Year 53.0% GBP 1.69BGBP 237.88MGBP 72.37MGBP 168.49M 0.160.370.082.463.21
Year 63.0% GBP 1.74BGBP 245.02MGBP 74.55MGBP 173.55M 0.160.380.092.543.30
Year 73.0% GBP 1.79BGBP 252.37MGBP 76.78MGBP 178.75M 0.170.390.092.623.40
Year 83.0% GBP 1.84BGBP 259.94MGBP 79.09MGBP 184.11M 0.170.400.092.693.51
Year 93.0% GBP 1.90BGBP 267.74MGBP 81.46MGBP 189.64M 0.180.410.102.783.61
Year 103.0% GBP 1.95BGBP 275.77MGBP 83.90MGBP 195.33M 0.180.430.102.863.72

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.