Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Partners Group Holding AG (PGHN.SW)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 14:16.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in CHF and a share price of CHF 673.00. Growth begins at 7.2% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 59.0%, net 45.0%, free cash flow 52.1% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (10.7%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
CHF 596.78Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range CHF 462.49 to CHF 834.39
-11%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

9.3%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
CHF 4.71BRevenue in year 10 (base)
CHF 2.12BNet income in year 10 (base)
CHF 2.45BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
CHF 70.43Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
CHF 1,033.60Implied share price in year 10 (base), today CHF 673.00
14.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

CHF 0.00 CHF 24.38 CHF 48.75 CHF 73.13 CHF 97.50 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 4.7% CHF 50.21 1.8%
Base 10.7% CHF 70.43 5.3%
Bull 16.7% CHF 97.50 8.8%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– CHF 2.80BCHF 1.65BCHF 1.26BCHF 1.46B 48.4556.1841.9684.05673.00
Year 110.7% CHF 3.11BCHF 1.83BCHF 1.40BCHF 1.62B 53.6562.2146.4791.24732.62
Year 28.7% CHF 3.38BCHF 1.99BCHF 1.52BCHF 1.76B 58.3167.6250.5099.04782.49
Year 36.1% CHF 3.58BCHF 2.11BCHF 1.61BCHF 1.87B 61.8771.7453.59107.33815.64
Year 45.6% CHF 3.78BCHF 2.23BCHF 1.70BCHF 1.97B 65.3275.7456.57116.07845.69
Year 55.0% CHF 3.97BCHF 2.34BCHF 1.79BCHF 2.07B 68.6179.5659.43125.26872.16
Year 64.5% CHF 4.15BCHF 2.45BCHF 1.87BCHF 2.16B 71.7183.1662.11134.86911.54
Year 74.0% CHF 4.32BCHF 2.55BCHF 1.94BCHF 2.25B 74.5786.4764.59144.85947.88
Year 83.5% CHF 4.47BCHF 2.63BCHF 2.01BCHF 2.33B 77.1589.4666.82155.18980.66
Year 92.9% CHF 4.60BCHF 2.71BCHF 2.07BCHF 2.40B 79.4192.0868.78165.811,009.38
Year 102.4% CHF 4.71BCHF 2.78BCHF 2.12BCHF 2.45B 81.3194.2970.43176.701,033.60

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.