Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Pentair (PNR)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:24.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 69.77. Growth begins at 11.4% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 22.6%, net 15.4%, free cash flow 16.3% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (18.4%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 71.61Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 50.55 to USD 109.13
3%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

9.5%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 8.60BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 1.33BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 1.40BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 2.32Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 154.19Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 69.77
12.5%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 480.01M USD 960.02M USD 1.44B USD 1.92B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 12.4% USD 1.01B 4.6%
Base 18.4% USD 1.40B 8.0%
Bull 24.4% USD 1.92B 11.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 3.97BUSD 894.40MUSD 612.20MUSD 646.60M 3.824.031.0724.0869.77
Year 118.4% USD 4.69BUSD 1.06BUSD 724.60MUSD 765.32M 4.524.771.2727.3382.91
Year 214.4% USD 5.37BUSD 1.21BUSD 828.89MUSD 875.46M 5.175.461.4531.0595.21
Year 39.5% USD 5.88BUSD 1.33BUSD 907.29MUSD 958.27M 5.665.981.5935.12104.63
Year 48.5% USD 6.38BUSD 1.44BUSD 984.35MUSD 1.04B 6.146.491.7239.54113.96
Year 57.5% USD 6.86BUSD 1.55BUSD 1.06BUSD 1.12B 6.606.971.8544.29123.01
Year 66.6% USD 7.31BUSD 1.65BUSD 1.13BUSD 1.19B 7.047.431.9749.35131.08
Year 75.6% USD 7.72BUSD 1.74BUSD 1.19BUSD 1.26B 7.437.852.0854.70138.42
Year 84.6% USD 8.07BUSD 1.82BUSD 1.25BUSD 1.32B 7.778.212.1860.29144.83
Year 93.7% USD 8.37BUSD 1.89BUSD 1.29BUSD 1.36B 8.068.512.2666.09150.14
Year 102.7% USD 8.60BUSD 1.94BUSD 1.33BUSD 1.40B 8.288.742.3272.04154.19

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.