Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Prudential Financial (PRU)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:40.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 122.46. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 8.9%, net 6.2%, free cash flow 17.3% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (1.8%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 121.24Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range USD 104.85 to USD 149.32
-1%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

8.2%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 75.98BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 4.69BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 10.92BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 6.99Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 205.98Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 122.46
25.7%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

USD 0.00 USD 40.11 USD 80.23 USD 120.34 USD 160.46 FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -4.2% USD 131.61 4.4%
Base 1.8% USD 144.38 5.4%
Bull 7.8% USD 160.46 6.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 61.33BUSD 5.47BUSD 3.78BUSD 10.61B 10.9230.625.6485.20122.46
Year 11.8% USD 62.42BUSD 5.57BUSD 3.85BUSD 10.43B 11.1130.115.7490.57129.99
Year 21.9% USD 63.62BUSD 5.68BUSD 3.92BUSD 10.26B 11.3229.625.8596.04137.63
Year 32.1% USD 64.95BUSD 5.80BUSD 4.00BUSD 10.09B 11.5629.145.97101.63145.42
Year 42.1% USD 66.33BUSD 5.92BUSD 4.09BUSD 9.92B 11.8128.656.10107.34153.36
Year 52.2% USD 67.78BUSD 6.05BUSD 4.18BUSD 9.74B 12.0728.136.23113.17161.45
Year 62.2% USD 69.28BUSD 6.18BUSD 4.27BUSD 9.96B 12.3328.756.37119.13169.95
Year 72.3% USD 70.85BUSD 6.32BUSD 4.37BUSD 10.19B 12.6129.406.52125.23178.65
Year 82.3% USD 72.49BUSD 6.47BUSD 4.47BUSD 10.42B 12.9030.086.67131.46187.55
Year 92.4% USD 74.20BUSD 6.62BUSD 4.58BUSD 10.67B 13.2130.796.82137.85196.66
Year 102.4% USD 75.98BUSD 6.78BUSD 4.69BUSD 10.92B 13.5331.536.99144.38205.98

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.