Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Prudential plc (PRU.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 12:45.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 9.29. Growth begins at 7.3% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 19.1%, net 14.0%, free cash flow 7.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (11.0%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 14.02Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range GBP 11.60 to GBP 18.29
51%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

14.9%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 35.79BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 3.41BNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 2.80BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.20Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 35.49Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 9.29
11.7%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

GBP 0.00 GBP 4.67 GBP 9.35 GBP 14.02 GBP 18.69 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 5.0% GBP 14.01 9.2%
Base 11.0% GBP 16.09 10.7%
Bull 17.0% GBP 18.69 12.4%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– GBP 21.15BGBP 4.04BGBP 2.97BGBP 1.65B 1.150.640.185.829.29
Year 111.0% GBP 23.48BGBP 4.11BGBP 3.08BGBP 1.84B 1.200.710.186.8311.74
Year 28.9% GBP 25.57BGBP 4.06BGBP 3.13BGBP 2.00B 1.210.770.187.8614.46
Year 36.2% GBP 27.15BGBP 3.87BGBP 3.08BGBP 2.12B 1.190.820.188.8717.40
Year 45.7% GBP 28.69BGBP 3.62BGBP 2.99BGBP 2.24B 1.160.870.189.8620.53
Year 55.1% GBP 30.16BGBP 3.32BGBP 2.87BGBP 2.36B 1.110.910.1710.8023.82
Year 64.6% GBP 31.54BGBP 3.47BGBP 3.01BGBP 2.47B 1.170.960.1811.7925.99
Year 74.0% GBP 32.81BGBP 3.61BGBP 3.13BGBP 2.57B 1.210.990.1812.8228.26
Year 83.5% GBP 33.95BGBP 3.74BGBP 3.24BGBP 2.65B 1.251.030.1913.8830.61
Year 92.9% GBP 34.95BGBP 3.85BGBP 3.33BGBP 2.73B 1.291.060.2014.9733.02
Year 102.4% GBP 35.79BGBP 3.94BGBP 3.41BGBP 2.80B 1.321.080.2016.0935.49

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.