Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Poste Italiane S.p.A. (PST.MI)

Price update date unknown; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 04 Nov 2026 15:22.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 24.05. Growth begins at 5.2% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 18.4%, net 9.5%, free cash flow 6.6% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 4.8 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Margins drift toward their 3-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (3.5%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 16.36Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range EUR 12.67 to EUR 22.87
-32%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

5.3%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 32.96BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 3.14BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 1.51BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 1.63Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 25.91Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 24.05
4.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 0.54 EUR 1.07 EUR 1.61 EUR 2.15 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -1.3% EUR 1.22 0.6%
Base 3.5% EUR 1.63 3.5%
Bull 8.3% EUR 2.15 6.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– EUR 23.26BEUR 4.29BEUR 2.21BEUR 1.52B 1.711.181.15n/a24.05
Year 13.5% EUR 24.07BEUR 4.44BEUR 2.29BEUR 1.48B 1.771.151.19n/a23.69
Year 24.2% EUR 25.07BEUR 4.62BEUR 2.39BEUR 1.45B 1.841.121.24n/a23.44
Year 34.6% EUR 26.22BEUR 4.83BEUR 2.50BEUR 1.41B 1.931.091.30n/a23.21
Year 44.3% EUR 27.33BEUR 5.04BEUR 2.60BEUR 1.36B 2.011.051.35n/a22.84
Year 53.9% EUR 28.41BEUR 5.24BEUR 2.70BEUR 1.31B 2.091.011.40n/a22.33
Year 63.6% EUR 29.44BEUR 5.43BEUR 2.80BEUR 1.35B 2.161.051.46n/a23.14
Year 73.3% EUR 30.42BEUR 5.61BEUR 2.90BEUR 1.40B 2.241.081.50n/a23.91
Year 83.0% EUR 31.34BEUR 5.78BEUR 2.98BEUR 1.44B 2.301.111.55n/a24.63
Year 92.7% EUR 32.19BEUR 5.94BEUR 3.06BEUR 1.48B 2.371.141.59n/a25.30
Year 102.4% EUR 32.96BEUR 6.08BEUR 3.14BEUR 1.51B 2.421.171.63n/a25.91

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.