Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Qiagen N.V. (QIA.DE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 13:21.

Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 45.26. Growth begins at 4.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.9% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 34.4%, net 19.5%, free cash flow 21.3% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (5.0%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 23.70Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range EUR 16.90 to EUR 35.52
-48%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

2.8%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 2.68BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 522.36MNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 571.50MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 2.08Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 41.48Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 45.26
6.1%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

EUR 0 EUR 199.30M EUR 398.59M EUR 597.89M EUR 797.19M FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Jun 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -1.0% EUR 404.02M 0.1%
Base 5.0% EUR 571.50M 3.6%
Bull 11.0% EUR 797.19M 7.1%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Jun 2026– EUR 1.88BEUR 646.36MEUR 366.32MEUR 400.78M 1.761.931.4614.4845.26
Year 15.0% EUR 1.97BEUR 678.87MEUR 384.74MEUR 420.93M 1.852.031.5314.8044.14
Year 24.5% EUR 2.06BEUR 709.14MEUR 401.90MEUR 439.70M 1.932.121.6015.1342.56
Year 33.8% EUR 2.14BEUR 735.82MEUR 417.02MEUR 456.25M 2.012.201.6615.4840.48
Year 43.6% EUR 2.22BEUR 762.61MEUR 432.20MEUR 472.86M 2.082.281.7215.8438.13
Year 53.5% EUR 2.30BEUR 789.43MEUR 447.40MEUR 489.49M 2.152.361.7816.2135.53
Year 63.4% EUR 2.37BEUR 816.21MEUR 462.58MEUR 506.10M 2.232.441.8416.6036.73
Year 73.3% EUR 2.45BEUR 842.90MEUR 477.71MEUR 522.64M 2.302.511.9017.0037.93
Year 83.1% EUR 2.53BEUR 869.43MEUR 492.74MEUR 539.09M 2.372.591.9617.4139.13
Year 93.0% EUR 2.60BEUR 895.71MEUR 507.64MEUR 555.39M 2.442.672.0217.8340.31
Year 102.9% EUR 2.68BEUR 921.69MEUR 522.36MEUR 571.50M 2.512.752.0818.2641.48

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.