Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Rheinmetall AG (RHM.DE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:48; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 04 Nov 2026 15:22.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 807.80. Growth begins at 21.8% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 22.0%, net 7.0%, free cash flow 14.2% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
Margins drift toward their 3-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (32.7%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 900.95Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range EUR 667.01 to EUR 1,317.96
12%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value; free cash flow is more than 2x earnings, so the cash-flow value may be overstated.

14.8%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 35.73BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 2.50BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 3.43BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 29.13Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 2,988.75Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 807.80
9.1%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

-EUR 175.00M EUR 1.02B EUR 2.22B EUR 3.41B EUR 4.61B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 26.7% EUR 2.53B 6.0%
Base 32.7% EUR 3.43B 9.3%
Bull 38.7% EUR 4.61B 12.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– EUR 9.94BEUR 2.19BEUR 696.00MEUR 1.42B 14.9230.338.10n/a807.80
Year 132.7% EUR 13.18BEUR 2.90BEUR 923.45MEUR 1.76B 19.7937.6110.75n/a1,077.97
Year 226.2% EUR 16.63BEUR 3.66BEUR 1.17BEUR 2.06B 24.9744.1613.56n/a1,368.06
Year 317.6% EUR 19.56BEUR 4.31BEUR 1.37BEUR 2.24B 29.3648.0215.94n/a1,617.61
Year 415.4% EUR 22.58BEUR 4.97BEUR 1.58BEUR 2.38B 33.9050.9518.41n/a1,878.06
Year 513.3% EUR 25.59BEUR 5.64BEUR 1.79BEUR 2.46B 38.4152.6520.86n/a2,140.26
Year 611.2% EUR 28.45BEUR 6.27BEUR 1.99BEUR 2.73B 42.7258.5523.20n/a2,379.92
Year 79.1% EUR 31.03BEUR 6.84BEUR 2.17BEUR 2.98B 46.5963.8625.30n/a2,595.86
Year 86.9% EUR 33.19BEUR 7.31BEUR 2.32BEUR 3.19B 49.8368.3027.06n/a2,776.24
Year 94.8% EUR 34.79BEUR 7.67BEUR 2.44BEUR 3.34B 52.2371.5928.36n/a2,910.18
Year 102.7% EUR 35.73BEUR 7.87BEUR 2.50BEUR 3.43B 53.6473.5229.13n/a2,988.75

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.