Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:56.

Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 381.78. Growth begins at 6.1% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.1% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 17.7%, net 11.8%, free cash flow 12.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (5.1%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 240.88Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 177.01 to USD 351.21
-37%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

2.2%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 12.93BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 1.52BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 1.61BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 5.57Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 427.40Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 381.78
6.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 561.48M USD 1.12B USD 1.68B USD 2.25B FY2022 FY2024 FY2026 TTM through 30 Jun 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -0.9% USD 1.15B 0.9%
Base 5.1% USD 1.61B 4.5%
Bull 11.1% USD 2.25B 8.0%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Jun 2026– USD 8.36BUSD 1.48BUSD 982.90MUSD 1.04B 16.0317.023.6044.40381.78
Year 15.1% USD 8.78BUSD 1.56BUSD 1.03BUSD 1.10B 16.8617.893.7857.47379.18
Year 25.4% USD 9.26BUSD 1.64BUSD 1.09BUSD 1.16B 17.7818.873.9971.26376.41
Year 35.4% USD 9.77BUSD 1.73BUSD 1.15BUSD 1.22B 18.7419.894.2185.80372.13
Year 45.1% USD 10.26BUSD 1.82BUSD 1.21BUSD 1.28B 19.7020.904.42101.07365.12
Year 54.8% USD 10.75BUSD 1.90BUSD 1.26BUSD 1.34B 20.6321.904.63117.07355.31
Year 64.4% USD 11.23BUSD 1.99BUSD 1.32BUSD 1.40B 21.5522.874.84133.79371.05
Year 74.1% USD 11.69BUSD 2.07BUSD 1.37BUSD 1.46B 22.4323.815.03151.18386.25
Year 83.8% USD 12.13BUSD 2.15BUSD 1.43BUSD 1.51B 23.2724.705.22169.23400.79
Year 93.4% USD 12.54BUSD 2.22BUSD 1.48BUSD 1.57B 24.0725.555.40187.90414.54
Year 103.1% USD 12.93BUSD 2.29BUSD 1.52BUSD 1.61B 24.8226.345.57207.15427.40

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.