Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Saab AB (SAAB-B.ST)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 13:20.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in SEK and a share price of SEK 602.70. Growth begins at 18.5% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 13.4%, net 8.1%, free cash flow 13.7% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 1.5 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (22.1%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
SEK 639.77Model fair value (Peer EV/Sales (growth peers)); range SEK 481.49 to SEK 798.04
6%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Free-cash-flow DCF value.

11.5%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
SEK 265.31BRevenue in year 10 (base)
SEK 21.51BNet income in year 10 (base)
SEK 24.91BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
SEK 5.71Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
SEK 1,748.35Implied share price in year 10 (base), today SEK 602.70
7.6%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

SEK 0 SEK 6.96B SEK 13.93B SEK 20.89B SEK 27.85B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 20.6% SEK 22.25B 5.8%
Base 22.1% SEK 24.91B 7.0%
Bull 23.6% SEK 27.85B 8.2%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– SEK 92.87BSEK 12.43BSEK 7.53BSEK 12.71B 13.9023.472.0096.03602.70
Year 122.1% SEK 113.42BSEK 15.18BSEK 9.19BSEK 14.54B 16.9826.862.44110.57738.34
Year 219.4% SEK 135.46BSEK 18.13BSEK 10.98BSEK 16.21B 20.2829.932.92127.93884.52
Year 315.0% SEK 155.75BSEK 20.84BSEK 12.63BSEK 17.30B 23.3231.953.35147.891,020.14
Year 413.2% SEK 176.35BSEK 23.60BSEK 14.30BSEK 18.07B 26.4033.383.80170.491,158.60
Year 511.5% SEK 196.58BSEK 26.31BSEK 15.94BSEK 18.46B 29.4334.094.23195.691,295.44
Year 69.7% SEK 215.69BSEK 28.86BSEK 17.48BSEK 20.25B 32.2937.404.65223.341,421.32
Year 78.0% SEK 232.86BSEK 31.16BSEK 18.88BSEK 21.86B 34.8640.385.02253.181,534.51
Year 86.2% SEK 247.32BSEK 33.10BSEK 20.05BSEK 23.22B 37.0342.895.33284.881,629.78
Year 94.5% SEK 258.34BSEK 34.57BSEK 20.94BSEK 24.26B 38.6844.805.56317.991,702.38
Year 102.7% SEK 265.31BSEK 35.51BSEK 21.51BSEK 24.91B 39.7246.015.71352.001,748.35

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.