Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Banco de Sabadell, S.A. (SAB.MC)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:36.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 3.62. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 7.5% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 29.9%, net 22.8%, free cash flow 17.7% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Starting growth was capped from 7.5% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (3.5%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 3.60Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range EUR 3.09 to EUR 4.50
-1%Fair value vs today's price
MediumModel confidence
50%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only.

9.1%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 10.22BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 2.33BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 1.81BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 0.09Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 7.79Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 3.62
9.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 1.57 EUR 3.13 EUR 4.70 EUR 6.27 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -2.6% EUR 4.84 6.7%
Base 3.5% EUR 5.47 8.0%
Bull 9.5% EUR 6.27 9.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– EUR 7.77BEUR 2.32BEUR 1.77BEUR 1.38B 0.320.250.072.543.62
Year 13.5% EUR 8.04BEUR 2.40BEUR 1.83BEUR 1.43B 0.330.260.072.793.99
Year 23.2% EUR 8.30BEUR 2.48BEUR 1.89BEUR 1.47B 0.340.270.073.064.37
Year 32.9% EUR 8.54BEUR 2.55BEUR 1.95BEUR 1.51B 0.350.270.083.344.75
Year 42.8% EUR 8.78BEUR 2.62BEUR 2.00BEUR 1.56B 0.360.280.083.625.15
Year 52.7% EUR 9.02BEUR 2.70BEUR 2.06BEUR 1.60B 0.370.290.083.915.56
Year 62.7% EUR 9.26BEUR 2.77BEUR 2.11BEUR 1.64B 0.380.300.084.215.99
Year 72.6% EUR 9.50BEUR 2.84BEUR 2.17BEUR 1.69B 0.390.300.094.516.42
Year 82.5% EUR 9.74BEUR 2.91BEUR 2.22BEUR 1.73B 0.400.310.094.826.87
Year 92.5% EUR 9.98BEUR 2.98BEUR 2.28BEUR 1.77B 0.410.320.095.147.32
Year 102.4% EUR 10.22BEUR 3.05BEUR 2.33BEUR 1.81B 0.420.330.095.477.79

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.