Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Sampo Oyj (SAMPO.HE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:48; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 05 Nov 2026 16:07.

Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 9.72. Growth begins at 7.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 19.8%, net 14.3%, free cash flow 12.3% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 2.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (6.1%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 4.84Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range EUR 3.75 to EUR 6.76
-50%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

3.7%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 18.64BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 2.67BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 2.28BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 0.53Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 9.47Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 9.72
8.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 0.20 EUR 0.41 EUR 0.61 EUR 0.82 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Jun 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 4.1% EUR 0.46 3.1%
Base 6.1% EUR 0.53 4.6%
Bull 8.1% EUR 0.61 6.1%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Jun 2026– EUR 11.93BEUR 2.36BEUR 1.71BEUR 1.46B 0.640.550.342.609.72
Year 16.1% EUR 12.65BEUR 2.50BEUR 1.82BEUR 1.55B 0.680.580.362.929.53
Year 26.3% EUR 13.45BEUR 2.66BEUR 1.93BEUR 1.65B 0.730.620.383.279.31
Year 35.9% EUR 14.25BEUR 2.82BEUR 2.04BEUR 1.75B 0.770.660.413.638.98
Year 45.4% EUR 15.02BEUR 2.97BEUR 2.15BEUR 1.84B 0.810.690.434.018.55
Year 54.9% EUR 15.76BEUR 3.11BEUR 2.26BEUR 1.93B 0.850.730.454.418.00
Year 64.4% EUR 16.46BEUR 3.25BEUR 2.36BEUR 2.02B 0.890.760.474.838.36
Year 73.9% EUR 17.11BEUR 3.38BEUR 2.45BEUR 2.10B 0.920.790.495.278.69
Year 83.4% EUR 17.69BEUR 3.50BEUR 2.54BEUR 2.17B 0.960.820.505.728.98
Year 92.9% EUR 18.21BEUR 3.60BEUR 2.61BEUR 2.23B 0.980.840.526.199.24
Year 102.4% EUR 18.64BEUR 3.68BEUR 2.67BEUR 2.28B 1.010.860.536.669.47

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.