Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN.MC)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:11.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 10.77. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 13.9% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 18.3%, net 11.8%, free cash flow 65.1% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Starting growth was capped from 13.9% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (net), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (8.9%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 10.86Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range EUR 9.25 to EUR 13.70
1%Fair value vs today's price
MediumModel confidence
50%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only.

8.9%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 169.51BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 16.25BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 110.29BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 0.26Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 22.89Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 10.77
68.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 4.17 EUR 8.35 EUR 12.52 EUR 16.70 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 2.9% EUR 13.08 6.5%
Base 8.9% EUR 14.69 7.8%
Bull 14.9% EUR 16.70 9.2%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– EUR 119.39BEUR 21.86BEUR 14.10BEUR 77.68B 0.955.220.226.9410.77
Year 18.9% EUR 130.00BEUR 23.80BEUR 14.78BEUR 84.58B 0.995.690.247.7011.96
Year 25.9% EUR 137.68BEUR 25.21BEUR 15.04BEUR 89.58B 1.016.020.248.4713.17
Year 32.9% EUR 141.63BEUR 25.93BEUR 14.84BEUR 92.15B 1.006.200.249.2314.36
Year 42.8% EUR 145.60BEUR 26.66BEUR 14.60BEUR 94.73B 0.986.370.239.9815.54
Year 52.7% EUR 149.58BEUR 27.39BEUR 14.34BEUR 97.32B 0.966.540.2310.7116.70
Year 62.7% EUR 153.56BEUR 28.12BEUR 14.72BEUR 99.92B 0.996.720.2311.4717.88
Year 72.6% EUR 157.56BEUR 28.85BEUR 15.10BEUR 102.51B 1.026.890.2412.2419.08
Year 82.5% EUR 161.55BEUR 29.58BEUR 15.48BEUR 105.11B 1.047.070.2513.0420.32
Year 92.5% EUR 165.53BEUR 30.31BEUR 15.87BEUR 107.70B 1.077.240.2513.8521.59
Year 102.4% EUR 169.51BEUR 31.04BEUR 16.25BEUR 110.29B 1.097.420.2614.6922.89

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.