Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Svenska Handelsbanken AB (SHB-A.ST)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 13:15.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in SEK and a share price of SEK 160.10. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 5.1% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 23.4%, net 17.4%, free cash flow 13.0% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Starting growth was capped from 5.1% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (5.1%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
SEK 131.80Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range SEK 113.48 to SEK 164.21
-18%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data.

5.8%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
SEK 180.25BRevenue in year 10 (base)
SEK 31.36BNet income in year 10 (base)
SEK 23.50BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
SEK 15.84Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
SEK 138.88Implied share price in year 10 (base), today SEK 160.10
7.4%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

SEK 0.00 SEK 23.76 SEK 47.53 SEK 71.29 SEK 95.06 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -0.9% SEK 95.06 0.0%
Base 5.1% SEK 95.06 0.0%
Bull 11.1% SEK 95.06 0.0%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– SEK 133.99BSEK 31.33BSEK 23.31BSEK 17.47B 11.778.8215.0095.06160.10
Year 15.1% SEK 140.78BSEK 32.92BSEK 24.49BSEK 18.36B 12.379.2712.3795.06155.86
Year 24.0% SEK 146.41BSEK 34.24BSEK 25.47BSEK 19.09B 12.869.6412.8695.06151.61
Year 32.9% SEK 150.61BSEK 35.22BSEK 26.20BSEK 19.64B 13.239.9213.2395.06147.37
Year 42.8% SEK 154.83BSEK 36.20BSEK 26.93BSEK 20.19B 13.6010.2013.6095.06143.12
Year 52.7% SEK 159.06BSEK 37.19BSEK 27.67BSEK 20.74B 13.9710.4713.9795.06138.88
Year 62.7% SEK 163.30BSEK 38.19BSEK 28.41BSEK 21.29B 14.3510.7514.3595.06138.88
Year 72.6% SEK 167.55BSEK 39.18BSEK 29.14BSEK 21.85B 14.7211.0314.7295.06138.88
Year 82.5% SEK 171.79BSEK 40.17BSEK 29.88BSEK 22.40B 15.0911.3115.0995.06138.88
Year 92.5% SEK 176.03BSEK 41.16BSEK 30.62BSEK 22.95B 15.4611.5915.4695.06138.88
Year 102.4% SEK 180.25BSEK 42.15BSEK 31.36BSEK 23.50B 15.8411.8715.8495.06138.88

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.