Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Sun Life Financial Inc. (SLF.TO)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 05 Nov 2026 16:07.

Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in CAD and a share price of CAD 102.83. Growth begins at 3.6% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 12.7%, net 8.8%, free cash flow 15.9% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
CAD 73.21Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range CAD 62.46 to CAD 92.23
-29%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

5.7%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
CAD 54.79BRevenue in year 10 (base)
CAD 4.83BNet income in year 10 (base)
CAD 8.73BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
CAD 5.14Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
CAD 133.17Implied share price in year 10 (base), today CAD 102.83
15.2%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

CAD 0.00 CAD 21.69 CAD 43.38 CAD 65.07 CAD 86.76 FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Jun 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -2.4% CAD 71.89 4.2%
Base 3.6% CAD 78.49 5.1%
Bull 9.6% CAD 86.76 6.2%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Jun 2026– CAD 40.69BCAD 5.16BCAD 3.58BCAD 6.49B 6.4111.603.8247.52102.83
Year 13.6% CAD 42.17BCAD 5.35BCAD 3.71BCAD 6.72B 6.6412.033.9650.20103.95
Year 23.5% CAD 43.65BCAD 5.54BCAD 3.84BCAD 6.96B 6.8812.454.1052.98104.75
Year 33.4% CAD 45.12BCAD 5.72BCAD 3.97BCAD 7.19B 7.1112.874.2355.86105.21
Year 43.2% CAD 46.58BCAD 5.91BCAD 4.10BCAD 7.42B 7.3413.284.3758.82105.30
Year 53.1% CAD 48.01BCAD 6.09BCAD 4.23BCAD 7.65B 7.5613.694.5161.88104.99
Year 63.0% CAD 49.43BCAD 6.27BCAD 4.35BCAD 7.88B 7.7914.104.6465.03110.33
Year 72.8% CAD 50.82BCAD 6.44BCAD 4.48BCAD 8.10B 8.0114.494.7768.27115.82
Year 82.7% CAD 52.18BCAD 6.62BCAD 4.60BCAD 8.32B 8.2214.884.9071.59121.46
Year 92.5% CAD 53.51BCAD 6.78BCAD 4.71BCAD 8.53B 8.4315.265.0275.00127.25
Year 102.4% CAD 54.79BCAD 6.95BCAD 4.83BCAD 8.73B 8.6315.625.1478.49133.17

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.