Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Snap-on (SNA)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:55.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 366.44. Growth begins at 4.1% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 28.8%, net 20.0%, free cash flow 20.0% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (3.7%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 296.36Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 222.62 to USD 427.61
-19%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

5.1%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 7.05BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 1.41BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 1.41BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 19.00Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 437.11Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 366.44
7.3%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 492.03M USD 984.07M USD 1.48B USD 1.97B FY2022 FY2024 FY2026 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -2.3% USD 995.26M -0.2%
Base 3.7% USD 1.41B 3.4%
Bull 9.7% USD 1.97B 6.9%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 5.06BUSD 1.46BUSD 1.01BUSD 1.01B 19.3019.3113.64116.31366.44
Year 13.7% USD 5.25BUSD 1.51BUSD 1.05BUSD 1.05B 20.0220.0414.15122.18369.24
Year 23.9% USD 5.46BUSD 1.57BUSD 1.09BUSD 1.09B 20.7920.8114.70128.28372.17
Year 33.8% USD 5.67BUSD 1.63BUSD 1.13BUSD 1.13B 21.5921.6115.26134.61374.62
Year 43.7% USD 5.87BUSD 1.69BUSD 1.17BUSD 1.17B 22.3822.4015.82141.17376.15
Year 53.5% USD 6.08BUSD 1.75BUSD 1.21BUSD 1.21B 23.1623.1816.37147.96376.70
Year 63.3% USD 6.28BUSD 1.81BUSD 1.25BUSD 1.26B 23.9423.9516.92154.98389.28
Year 73.2% USD 6.48BUSD 1.87BUSD 1.29BUSD 1.30B 24.7024.7217.46162.22401.66
Year 83.0% USD 6.68BUSD 1.92BUSD 1.33BUSD 1.33B 25.4425.4617.98169.68413.79
Year 92.9% USD 6.87BUSD 1.98BUSD 1.37BUSD 1.37B 26.1726.1918.50177.35425.62
Year 102.7% USD 7.05BUSD 2.03BUSD 1.41BUSD 1.41B 26.8826.9019.00185.23437.11

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.