Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Sandisk (SNDK)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:46.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 806.43. Growth begins at 22.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.3% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 75.4%, net 67.0%, free cash flow 59.9% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (19.8%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 1,443.25Model fair value (Steady-state FCFF (cycle-adjusted)); range USD 1,156.89 to USD 1,912.88
79%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

14.3%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 92.09BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 61.74BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 19.44BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 3,069.47Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 806.43
15.7%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

-USD 932.00M USD 5.88B USD 12.68B USD 19.49B USD 26.30B FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 FY2026 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 13.8% USD 14.22B -2.0%
Base 19.8% USD 19.44B 1.1%
Bull 25.8% USD 26.30B 4.2%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 28.97BUSD 21.83BUSD 19.42BUSD 17.36B 126.12112.76n/an/a806.43
Year 119.8% USD 34.70BUSD 22.43BUSD 23.26BUSD 18.11B 151.06117.57n/an/a1,004.08
Year 219.9% USD 41.59BUSD 22.43BUSD 27.88BUSD 18.47B 181.06119.94n/an/a1,249.18
Year 317.8% USD 49.02BUSD 21.18BUSD 32.86BUSD 17.96B 213.38116.63n/an/a1,526.01
Year 415.8% USD 56.74BUSD 18.44BUSD 38.04BUSD 16.39B 247.01106.41n/an/a1,828.93
Year 513.7% USD 64.50BUSD 14.05BUSD 43.24BUSD 13.62B 280.8088.44n/an/a2,149.98
Year 611.6% USD 71.98BUSD 15.68BUSD 48.26BUSD 15.20B 313.3598.69n/an/a2,399.21
Year 79.5% USD 78.82BUSD 17.17BUSD 52.84BUSD 16.64B 343.14108.07n/an/a2,627.29
Year 87.4% USD 84.67BUSD 18.44BUSD 56.76BUSD 17.88B 368.60116.09n/an/a2,822.27
Year 95.3% USD 89.19BUSD 19.42BUSD 59.79BUSD 18.83B 388.27122.29n/an/a2,972.85
Year 103.3% USD 92.09BUSD 20.06BUSD 61.74BUSD 19.44B 400.89126.26n/an/a3,069.47

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.