Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Sofina SA (SOF.BR)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 12:49.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 268.60. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 95.7%, net 87.4%, free cash flow 326.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
EUR 281.28Model fair value (Net asset value (book)); range EUR 250.02 to EUR 312.53
5%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; annual data only; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value; investment holding company: value is its net assets less a typical discount, and book value is only a proxy for what its stakes are worth.

1.4%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 160.76MRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 140.47MNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 276.16MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 4.05Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 271.77Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 268.60
3.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 83.09 EUR 166.19 EUR 249.28 EUR 332.38 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -4.0% EUR 312.53 0.0%
Base 2.0% EUR 312.53 0.0%
Bull 8.0% EUR 312.53 0.0%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– EUR 129.33MEUR 123.79MEUR 113.00MEUR 422.19M 3.2612.173.34312.53268.60
Year 12.0% EUR 131.91MEUR 126.27MEUR 115.26MEUR 389.82M 3.3211.243.32312.53269.23
Year 22.0% EUR 134.61MEUR 128.85MEUR 117.62MEUR 356.15M 3.3910.273.39312.53269.87
Year 32.1% EUR 137.42MEUR 131.54MEUR 120.07MEUR 321.08M 3.469.253.46312.53270.50
Year 42.1% EUR 140.35MEUR 134.35MEUR 122.64MEUR 284.51M 3.538.203.53312.53271.14
Year 52.2% EUR 143.41MEUR 137.27MEUR 125.31MEUR 246.35M 3.617.103.61312.53271.77
Year 62.2% EUR 146.60MEUR 140.32MEUR 128.09MEUR 251.82M 3.697.263.69312.53271.77
Year 72.3% EUR 149.92MEUR 143.50MEUR 130.99MEUR 257.53M 3.787.423.78312.53271.77
Year 82.3% EUR 153.38MEUR 146.82MEUR 134.02MEUR 263.48M 3.867.593.86312.53271.77
Year 92.4% EUR 157.00MEUR 150.28MEUR 137.18MEUR 269.69M 3.957.773.95312.53271.77
Year 102.4% EUR 160.76MEUR 153.88MEUR 140.47MEUR 276.16M 4.057.964.05312.53271.77

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.