Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Sony Group Corporation (SONY)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; Fiscal year 2026; Annual financials downloaded 04 Nov 2026 15:22.

Starts from Fiscal year 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 27.54. Growth begins at 2.4% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.9% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 21.1%, net -2.6%, free cash flow 11.9% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 2.2 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

The company is loss-making today, so the projection keeps the loss margin. It does not model a path to profit.
Margins drift toward their 3-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-0.8%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 34.22Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 25.91 to USD 48.78
24%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: EV/EBITDA (12x) is somewhat apart; annual data only.

-0.1%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 154.63BRevenue in year 10 (base)
-USD 4.05BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 13.91BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 27.32Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 27.54
8.4%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

-USD 2.99B USD 2.01B USD 7.01B USD 12.01B USD 17.01B FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 Fiscal year 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -3.1% USD 11.86B -2.2%
Base -0.8% USD 13.91B -0.7%
Bull 1.4% USD 16.29B 0.9%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2026– USD 124.80BUSD 26.39B-USD 3.27BUSD 14.88B -0.542.47n/an/a27.54
Year 1-0.8% USD 123.76BUSD 26.17B-USD 3.24BUSD 14.03B -0.542.33n/an/a26.29
Year 20.8% USD 124.78BUSD 26.38B-USD 3.27BUSD 13.42B -0.542.23n/an/a25.44
Year 32.5% USD 127.95BUSD 27.05B-USD 3.35BUSD 13.01B -0.562.16n/an/a24.96
Year 42.6% USD 131.25BUSD 27.75B-USD 3.44BUSD 12.58B -0.572.09n/an/a24.41
Year 52.6% USD 134.72BUSD 28.48B-USD 3.53BUSD 12.12B -0.592.02n/an/a23.80
Year 62.7% USD 138.34BUSD 29.25B-USD 3.62BUSD 12.45B -0.602.07n/an/a24.44
Year 72.7% USD 142.14BUSD 30.05B-USD 3.72BUSD 12.79B -0.622.13n/an/a25.11
Year 82.8% USD 146.11BUSD 30.89B-USD 3.83BUSD 13.15B -0.642.19n/an/a25.81
Year 92.8% USD 150.27BUSD 31.77B-USD 3.94BUSD 13.52B -0.652.25n/an/a26.55
Year 102.9% USD 154.63BUSD 32.69B-USD 4.05BUSD 13.91B -0.672.31n/an/a27.32

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.