Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Swiss Re AG (SREN.SW)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:48; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 15:44.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in CHF and a share price of CHF 152.00. Growth begins at 2.2% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 13.7%, net 9.9%, free cash flow 6.3% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 5.4 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (0.6%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
CHF 85.87Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range CHF 66.96 to CHF 118.77
-44%Fair value vs today's price
MediumModel confidence
50%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

-0.4%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
CHF 50.40BRevenue in year 10 (base)
CHF 3.31BNet income in year 10 (base)
CHF 3.17BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
CHF 5.06Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
CHF 96.70Implied share price in year 10 (base), today CHF 152.00
7.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

CHF 0.00 CHF 1.72 CHF 3.45 CHF 5.17 CHF 6.90 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -4.8% CHF 3.67 -5.1%
Base 0.6% CHF 5.06 -2.0%
Bull 5.9% CHF 6.90 1.0%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– CHF 41.16BCHF 5.63BCHF 4.07BCHF 2.59B 13.628.686.2367.62152.00
Year 10.6% CHF 41.38BCHF 5.34BCHF 3.82BCHF 2.61B 12.778.735.8474.56136.36
Year 21.4% CHF 41.96BCHF 5.09BCHF 3.59BCHF 2.64B 12.028.855.4981.08122.45
Year 32.2% CHF 42.89BCHF 4.86BCHF 3.39BCHF 2.70B 11.339.045.1887.23109.96
Year 42.3% CHF 43.86BCHF 4.63BCHF 3.17BCHF 2.76B 10.619.254.8593.0097.83
Year 52.3% CHF 44.87BCHF 4.39BCHF 2.95BCHF 2.83B 9.869.464.5198.3586.08
Year 62.3% CHF 45.90BCHF 4.49BCHF 3.01BCHF 2.89B 10.089.684.61103.8288.06
Year 72.3% CHF 46.97BCHF 4.59BCHF 3.08BCHF 2.96B 10.329.904.72109.4290.12
Year 82.4% CHF 48.08BCHF 4.70BCHF 3.16BCHF 3.03B 10.5610.144.83115.1692.24
Year 92.4% CHF 49.22BCHF 4.81BCHF 3.23BCHF 3.10B 10.8110.384.94121.0394.43
Year 102.4% CHF 50.40BCHF 4.93BCHF 3.31BCHF 3.17B 11.0710.635.06127.0496.70

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.