Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

SSAB AB (SSAB-A.ST)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:48; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 17:18.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in SEK and a share price of SEK 90.56. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 4.7% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.6% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 11.9%, net 5.6%, free cash flow -0.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 4.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is negative today, so the projection keeps it negative. It does not model a turnaround.
Starting growth was capped from 4.7% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (11.2%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
SEK 57.78Model fair value (Earnings-based DCF); range SEK 42.93 to SEK 84.42
-36%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: EV/EBITDA (12x) disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; free cash flow is negative, so the earnings may not be turning into cash; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

2.3%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
SEK 148.73BRevenue in year 10 (base)
SEK 6.06BNet income in year 10 (base)
SEK 6.34BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
SEK 2.77Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
SEK 87.90Implied share price in year 10 (base), today SEK 90.56
7.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Net income over time

-SEK 10.89B -SEK 4.91B SEK 1.07B SEK 7.05B SEK 13.03B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Net income in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 7.1% SEK 4.74B -1.8%
Base 11.2% SEK 6.06B 0.7%
Bull 15.2% SEK 7.69B 3.1%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– SEK 100.56BSEK 11.95BSEK 5.67B-SEK 474.00M 5.69-0.482.6073.7390.56
Year 111.2% SEK 111.78BSEK 14.18BSEK 5.96BSEK 530.80M 5.980.532.7376.9893.33
Year 27.1% SEK 119.66BSEK 16.15BSEK 6.00BSEK 1.70B 6.021.712.7580.2592.29
Year 32.9% SEK 123.14BSEK 17.61BSEK 5.79BSEK 2.92B 5.812.932.6583.4187.36
Year 42.9% SEK 126.67BSEK 19.14BSEK 5.56BSEK 4.20B 5.584.212.5586.4482.25
Year 52.8% SEK 130.25BSEK 20.73BSEK 5.30BSEK 5.55B 5.325.572.4389.3376.98
Year 62.8% SEK 133.87BSEK 21.31BSEK 5.45BSEK 5.70B 5.475.722.5092.3079.12
Year 72.7% SEK 137.52BSEK 21.89BSEK 5.60BSEK 5.86B 5.625.882.5795.3681.28
Year 82.7% SEK 141.22BSEK 22.48BSEK 5.75BSEK 6.02B 5.776.042.6398.4983.47
Year 92.6% SEK 144.96BSEK 23.08BSEK 5.90BSEK 6.17B 5.926.202.70101.7185.67
Year 102.6% SEK 148.73BSEK 23.68BSEK 6.06BSEK 6.34B 6.086.362.77105.0287.90

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.