Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

St. James's Place plc (STJ.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:17.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 11.30. Growth begins at 9.7% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 4.4%, net 1.8%, free cash flow 3.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (14.1%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 11.56Model fair value (Earnings-based DCF); range GBP 8.55 to GBP 16.97
2%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Dividend discount model disagrees strongly; annual data only; value is more than 1.5x the Dividend discount model value.

8.1%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 57.69BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 1.02BNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 1.26BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.34Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 21.74Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 11.30
20.8%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Net income over time

-GBP 10.10M GBP 342.11M GBP 694.31M GBP 1.05B GBP 1.40B FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Net income in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 8.1% GBP 728.35M 3.2%
Base 14.1% GBP 1.02B 6.7%
Bull 20.1% GBP 1.40B 10.2%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– GBP 30.16BGBP 1.33BGBP 531.10MGBP 1.07B 0.991.980.182.7511.30
Year 114.1% GBP 34.40BGBP 1.52BGBP 605.77MGBP 1.12B 1.132.090.203.6712.90
Year 211.5% GBP 38.36BGBP 1.69BGBP 675.36MGBP 1.15B 1.262.140.234.7014.40
Year 38.1% GBP 41.46BGBP 1.83BGBP 730.07MGBP 1.13B 1.362.100.255.8115.59
Year 47.3% GBP 44.48BGBP 1.96BGBP 783.27MGBP 1.09B 1.462.030.267.0016.74
Year 56.5% GBP 47.36BGBP 2.09BGBP 833.97MGBP 1.04B 1.551.930.288.2717.85
Year 65.7% GBP 50.04BGBP 2.20BGBP 881.15MGBP 1.09B 1.642.030.309.6118.86
Year 74.8% GBP 52.47BGBP 2.31BGBP 923.83MGBP 1.15B 1.722.130.3111.0219.77
Year 84.0% GBP 54.58BGBP 2.40BGBP 961.05MGBP 1.19B 1.792.220.3212.4820.57
Year 93.2% GBP 56.33BGBP 2.48BGBP 991.94MGBP 1.23B 1.842.290.3313.9921.23
Year 102.4% GBP 57.69BGBP 2.54BGBP 1.02BGBP 1.26B 1.892.350.3415.5421.74

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.