Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Company Years Starting growth % Long-run growth %

Severn Trent PLC (SVT.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:48; Fiscal year 2026; Annual financials downloaded 05 Nov 2026 16:07.

Starts from Fiscal year 2026 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 32.76. Growth begins at 9.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.2% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 51.1%, net 13.1%, free cash flow -34.3% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 5.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is negative today, so the projection keeps it negative. It does not model a turnaround.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (net), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (11.0%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.

GBP 19.65Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range GBP 14.82 to GBP 28.86

-40%Fair value vs today's price

MediumModel confidence

50%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: EV/EBITDA (12x) agrees; annual data only.

3.8%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead

GBP 5.02BRevenue in year 10 (base)

GBP 472.53MNet income in year 10 (base)

-GBP 1.72BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)

GBP 1.57Dividend per share in year 10 (base)

GBP 33.38Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 32.76

-17.4%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range

Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
Case	Starting growth	Year 10	Annual growth
Bear	6.0%	GBP 1.18	-0.4%
Base	11.0%	GBP 1.57	2.4%
Bull	16.0%	GBP 2.07	5.3%

Base case by year

Year	Growth	Revenue	EBITDA	Net income	Free cash flow	EPS	FCF / share	Dividend / share	Book / share	Implied price
Fiscal year 2026	–	GBP 2.83B	GBP 1.45B	GBP 371.00M	-GBP 972.00M	1.23	-3.22	1.23	6.11	32.76
Year 1	11.0%	GBP 3.14B	GBP 1.61B	GBP 388.58M	-GBP 1.08B	1.29	-3.58	1.29	6.11	32.94
Year 2	9.6%	GBP 3.44B	GBP 1.76B	GBP 400.49M	-GBP 1.18B	1.33	-3.92	1.33	6.11	32.53
Year 3	7.5%	GBP 3.70B	GBP 1.89B	GBP 403.10M	-GBP 1.27B	1.34	-4.21	1.34	6.11	31.32
Year 4	6.7%	GBP 3.95B	GBP 2.02B	GBP 401.04M	-GBP 1.36B	1.33	-4.50	1.33	6.11	29.74
Year 5	6.0%	GBP 4.18B	GBP 2.14B	GBP 394.10M	-GBP 1.44B	1.31	-4.76	1.31	6.11	27.84
Year 6	5.2%	GBP 4.40B	GBP 2.25B	GBP 414.61M	-GBP 1.51B	1.38	-5.01	1.38	6.11	29.28
Year 7	4.5%	GBP 4.60B	GBP 2.35B	GBP 433.07M	-GBP 1.58B	1.44	-5.24	1.44	6.11	30.59
Year 8	3.7%	GBP 4.77B	GBP 2.44B	GBP 449.11M	-GBP 1.64B	1.49	-5.43	1.49	6.11	31.72
Year 9	3.0%	GBP 4.91B	GBP 2.51B	GBP 462.36M	-GBP 1.69B	1.53	-5.59	1.53	6.11	32.66
Year 10	2.2%	GBP 5.02B	GBP 2.57B	GBP 472.53M	-GBP 1.72B	1.57	-5.71	1.57	6.11	33.38

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.