Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Sweco AB (SWEC-B.ST)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 13:38.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in SEK and a share price of SEK 143.00. Growth begins at 7.4% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 15.0%, net 7.2%, free cash flow 10.1% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (7.1%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
SEK 138.93Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range SEK 98.41 to SEK 211.07
-3%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

6.8%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
SEK 53.93BRevenue in year 10 (base)
SEK 3.88BNet income in year 10 (base)
SEK 5.42BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
SEK 5.38Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
SEK 231.65Implied share price in year 10 (base), today SEK 143.00
10.5%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

SEK 0 SEK 1.88B SEK 3.76B SEK 5.64B SEK 7.52B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 1.1% SEK 3.86B 1.5%
Base 7.1% SEK 5.42B 5.0%
Bull 13.1% SEK 7.52B 8.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– SEK 33.05BSEK 4.96BSEK 2.38BSEK 3.32B 6.589.203.3037.31143.00
Year 17.1% SEK 35.40BSEK 5.31BSEK 2.54BSEK 3.56B 7.049.853.5340.82152.93
Year 27.0% SEK 37.87BSEK 5.68BSEK 2.72BSEK 3.81B 7.5410.543.7844.57163.38
Year 36.3% SEK 40.28BSEK 6.04BSEK 2.90BSEK 4.05B 8.0111.214.0248.57173.51
Year 45.8% SEK 42.63BSEK 6.39BSEK 3.06BSEK 4.29B 8.4811.874.2652.79183.35
Year 55.3% SEK 44.89BSEK 6.73BSEK 3.23BSEK 4.51B 8.9312.504.4857.24192.81
Year 64.8% SEK 47.03BSEK 7.05BSEK 3.38BSEK 4.73B 9.3613.094.7061.91202.03
Year 74.3% SEK 49.04BSEK 7.35BSEK 3.53BSEK 4.93B 9.7613.654.9066.77210.64
Year 83.7% SEK 50.88BSEK 7.63BSEK 3.66BSEK 5.12B 10.1214.165.0871.81218.53
Year 93.2% SEK 52.51BSEK 7.87BSEK 3.77BSEK 5.28B 10.4514.625.2477.02225.56
Year 102.7% SEK 53.93BSEK 8.09BSEK 3.88BSEK 5.42B 10.7315.015.3882.37231.65

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.