Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Company Years Starting growth % Long-run growth %

Swedbank AB (SWED-A.ST)

Price updated 07 Nov 2026 00:06; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 14:11.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in SEK and a share price of SEK 401.80. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 7.4% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 34.5%, net 26.3%, free cash flow -2.0% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is negative today, so the projection keeps it negative. It does not model a turnaround.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.

Starting growth was capped from 7.4% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (7.2%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.

SEK 316.60Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range SEK 268.54 to SEK 401.63

-21%Fair value vs today's price

HighModel confidence

75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data.

6.3%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead

SEK 163.30BRevenue in year 10 (base)

SEK 42.95BNet income in year 10 (base)

-SEK 3.29BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)

SEK 28.38Dividend per share in year 10 (base)

SEK 489.75Implied share price in year 10 (base), today SEK 401.80

-0.7%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range

Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
Case	Starting growth	Year 10	Annual growth
Bear	1.3%	SEK 258.64	3.1%
Base	7.3%	SEK 276.90	3.8%
Bull	13.3%	SEK 299.82	4.6%

Base case by year

Year	Growth	Revenue	EBITDA	Net income	Free cash flow	EPS	FCF / share	Dividend / share	Book / share	Implied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026	–	SEK 117.68B	SEK 40.65B	SEK 30.95B	-SEK 2.37B	27.38	-2.10	20.45	191.05	401.80
Year 1	7.3%	SEK 126.22B	SEK 43.60B	SEK 33.20B	-SEK 2.54B	29.37	-2.25	21.93	198.48	404.16
Year 2	5.1%	SEK 132.64B	SEK 45.82B	SEK 34.89B	-SEK 2.67B	30.86	-2.37	23.05	206.29	406.26
Year 3	2.9%	SEK 136.45B	SEK 47.13B	SEK 35.89B	-SEK 2.75B	31.75	-2.43	23.71	214.33	407.75
Year 4	2.8%	SEK 140.27B	SEK 48.45B	SEK 36.89B	-SEK 2.83B	32.63	-2.50	24.37	222.59	408.58
Year 5	2.7%	SEK 144.10B	SEK 49.78B	SEK 37.90B	-SEK 2.90B	33.53	-2.57	25.04	231.08	408.70
Year 6	2.7%	SEK 147.94B	SEK 51.10B	SEK 38.91B	-SEK 2.98B	34.42	-2.64	25.71	239.79	424.11
Year 7	2.6%	SEK 151.79B	SEK 52.43B	SEK 39.92B	-SEK 3.06B	35.32	-2.71	26.38	248.73	439.92
Year 8	2.5%	SEK 155.63B	SEK 53.76B	SEK 40.93B	-SEK 3.14B	36.21	-2.77	27.04	257.89	456.13
Year 9	2.5%	SEK 159.47B	SEK 55.09B	SEK 41.94B	-SEK 3.21B	37.10	-2.84	27.71	267.29	472.74
Year 10	2.4%	SEK 163.30B	SEK 56.41B	SEK 42.95B	-SEK 3.29B	37.99	-2.91	28.38	276.90	489.75

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.