Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Synchrony Financial (SYF)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:24.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 74.07. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 6.1% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 25.3%, net 17.6%, free cash flow 50.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Starting growth was capped from 6.1% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (5.2%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 105.59Model fair value (Earnings-based DCF); range USD 78.44 to USD 154.32
43%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Dividend discount model disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Dividend discount model value.

5.8%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 25.51BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 4.49BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 12.88BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 2.14Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 110.49Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 74.07
53.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Net income over time

USD 0 USD 1.57B USD 3.14B USD 4.71B USD 6.28B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Net income in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -0.8% USD 3.17B -0.5%
Base 5.2% USD 4.49B 3.0%
Bull 11.2% USD 6.28B 6.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 18.92BUSD 4.79BUSD 3.33BUSD 9.55B 10.3429.641.5851.3374.07
Year 15.2% USD 19.91BUSD 5.04BUSD 3.51BUSD 10.05B 10.8831.181.6760.5479.59
Year 24.1% USD 20.72BUSD 5.25BUSD 3.65BUSD 10.46B 11.3232.461.7470.1384.57
Year 32.9% USD 21.32BUSD 5.40BUSD 3.75BUSD 10.76B 11.6533.391.7979.9988.77
Year 42.8% USD 21.91BUSD 5.55BUSD 3.86BUSD 11.06B 11.9734.321.8490.1393.08
Year 52.7% USD 22.51BUSD 5.70BUSD 3.97BUSD 11.37B 12.3035.261.89100.5497.50
Year 62.7% USD 23.11BUSD 5.85BUSD 4.07BUSD 11.67B 12.6336.201.94111.23100.10
Year 72.6% USD 23.71BUSD 6.01BUSD 4.18BUSD 11.97B 12.9637.141.99122.20102.70
Year 82.5% USD 24.31BUSD 6.16BUSD 4.28BUSD 12.28B 13.2838.082.04133.45105.30
Year 92.5% USD 24.91BUSD 6.31BUSD 4.39BUSD 12.58B 13.6139.022.09144.97107.90
Year 102.4% USD 25.51BUSD 6.46BUSD 4.49BUSD 12.88B 13.9439.962.14156.77110.49

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.