Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

AT&T (T)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:48; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 14:11.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 21.43. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.9% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 35.5%, net 10.1%, free cash flow 13.9% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 5.4 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (0.1%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 9.98Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 1.39 to USD 25.02
-53%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

3.0%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 159.40BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 16.17BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 22.08BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 1.43Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 15.88Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 21.43
15.1%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 7.54B USD 15.08B USD 22.62B USD 30.16B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -5.4% USD 15.97B -1.1%
Base 0.1% USD 22.08B 2.2%
Bull 5.5% USD 30.16B 5.4%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 128.85BUSD 45.72BUSD 13.07BUSD 17.85B 1.912.611.1615.6021.43
Year 10.1% USD 128.93BUSD 45.75BUSD 13.08BUSD 17.86B 1.912.611.1616.3519.72
Year 21.1% USD 130.32BUSD 46.24BUSD 13.22BUSD 18.05B 1.932.641.1717.1118.20
Year 32.2% USD 133.19BUSD 47.26BUSD 13.51BUSD 18.45B 1.972.701.2017.8916.82
Year 42.3% USD 136.25BUSD 48.35BUSD 13.82BUSD 18.87B 2.022.761.2318.6815.39
Year 52.4% USD 139.52BUSD 49.51BUSD 14.15BUSD 19.32B 2.072.821.2619.4913.90
Year 62.5% USD 143.01BUSD 50.75BUSD 14.51BUSD 19.81B 2.122.891.2920.3314.25
Year 72.6% USD 146.73BUSD 52.07BUSD 14.88BUSD 20.32B 2.172.971.3221.1814.62
Year 82.7% USD 150.69BUSD 53.47BUSD 15.29BUSD 20.87B 2.233.051.3622.0615.02
Year 92.8% USD 154.91BUSD 54.97BUSD 15.71BUSD 21.46B 2.303.141.3922.9615.44
Year 102.9% USD 159.40BUSD 56.56BUSD 16.17BUSD 22.08B 2.363.231.4323.8915.88

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.