Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Telefonica, S.A. (TEF.MC)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:48; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 04 Nov 2026 15:22.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 3.34. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.9% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 23.9%, net -12.3%, free cash flow 13.3% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

The company is loss-making today, so the projection keeps the loss margin. It does not model a path to profit.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (2.1%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 5.08Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range EUR 2.36 to EUR 9.84
52%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: EV/EBITDA (12x) disagrees strongly; annual data only.

3.7%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 44.75BRevenue in year 10 (base)
-EUR 5.50BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 5.95BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 4.81Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 3.34
31.5%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

EUR 0 EUR 2.08B EUR 4.17B EUR 6.25B EUR 8.34B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -3.9% EUR 4.18B -1.1%
Base 2.1% EUR 5.95B 2.5%
Bull 8.1% EUR 8.34B 6.0%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– EUR 35.12BEUR 8.41B-EUR 4.32BEUR 4.67B -0.760.83n/an/a3.34
Year 12.1% EUR 35.84BEUR 8.58B-EUR 4.41BEUR 4.76B -0.780.84n/an/a3.50
Year 22.1% EUR 36.59BEUR 8.76B-EUR 4.50BEUR 4.86B -0.800.86n/an/a3.66
Year 32.2% EUR 37.39BEUR 8.95B-EUR 4.60BEUR 4.97B -0.810.88n/an/a3.83
Year 42.3% EUR 38.25BEUR 9.16B-EUR 4.70BEUR 5.08B -0.830.90n/an/a4.02
Year 52.4% EUR 39.17BEUR 9.38B-EUR 4.82BEUR 5.21B -0.850.92n/an/a4.21
Year 62.5% EUR 40.15BEUR 9.61B-EUR 4.94BEUR 5.34B -0.870.94n/an/a4.32
Year 72.6% EUR 41.20BEUR 9.86B-EUR 5.06BEUR 5.47B -0.900.97n/an/a4.43
Year 82.7% EUR 42.31BEUR 10.13B-EUR 5.20BEUR 5.62B -0.920.99n/an/a4.55
Year 92.8% EUR 43.49BEUR 10.41B-EUR 5.35BEUR 5.78B -0.951.02n/an/a4.67
Year 102.9% EUR 44.75BEUR 10.71B-EUR 5.50BEUR 5.95B -0.971.05n/an/a4.81

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.