Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Telenor ASA (TEL.OL)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:59.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in NOK and a share price of NOK 134.20. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.9% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 66.0%, net 26.2%, free cash flow 24.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 5.6 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-1.0%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
NOK 116.57Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range NOK 93.23 to NOK 154.50
-13%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

6.5%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
NOK 86.58BRevenue in year 10 (base)
NOK 22.71BNet income in year 10 (base)
NOK 21.47BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
NOK 11.68Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
NOK 147.21Implied share price in year 10 (base), today NOK 134.20
11.8%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

NOK 0.00 NOK 4.02 NOK 8.04 NOK 12.05 NOK 16.07 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -6.6% NOK 8.38 -1.3%
Base -1.0% NOK 11.68 2.0%
Bull 4.5% NOK 16.07 5.3%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– NOK 71.15BNOK 46.99BNOK 18.66BNOK 17.65B 13.7713.029.6052.58134.20
Year 1-1.0% NOK 70.41BNOK 46.50BNOK 18.47BNOK 17.46B 13.6212.889.5056.70130.19
Year 20.5% NOK 70.78BNOK 46.75BNOK 18.57BNOK 17.56B 13.7012.959.5560.85128.25
Year 32.2% NOK 72.34BNOK 47.78BNOK 18.97BNOK 17.94B 14.0013.249.7665.09128.38
Year 42.3% NOK 74.00BNOK 48.88BNOK 19.41BNOK 18.35B 14.3213.549.9969.42128.58
Year 52.4% NOK 75.78BNOK 50.05BNOK 19.88BNOK 18.79B 14.6613.8610.2273.86128.85
Year 62.5% NOK 77.67BNOK 51.30BNOK 20.37BNOK 19.26B 15.0314.2110.4878.41132.07
Year 72.6% NOK 79.69BNOK 52.64BNOK 20.90BNOK 19.77B 15.4214.5810.7583.08135.51
Year 82.7% NOK 81.85BNOK 54.06BNOK 21.47BNOK 20.30B 15.8414.9711.0487.87139.17
Year 92.8% NOK 84.14BNOK 55.57BNOK 22.07BNOK 20.87B 16.2815.3911.3592.80143.06
Year 102.9% NOK 86.58BNOK 57.18BNOK 22.71BNOK 21.47B 16.7515.8411.6897.87147.21

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.