Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Thule Group AB (THULE.ST)

Price updated 07 Nov 2026 00:06; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 07 Nov 2026 01:46.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in SEK and a share price of SEK 216.80. Growth begins at 5.4% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.1% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 20.6%, net 11.9%, free cash flow 12.4% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (6.8%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
SEK 145.04Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range SEK 101.18 to SEK 220.78
-33%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

5.3%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
SEK 16.15BRevenue in year 10 (base)
SEK 1.93BNet income in year 10 (base)
SEK 2.01BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
SEK 12.85Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
SEK 252.34Implied share price in year 10 (base), today SEK 216.80
8.6%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

SEK 0 SEK 697.97M SEK 1.40B SEK 2.09B SEK 2.79B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 0.8% SEK 1.42B 0.9%
Base 6.8% SEK 2.01B 4.5%
Bull 12.8% SEK 2.79B 8.0%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– SEK 10.43BSEK 2.15BSEK 1.24BSEK 1.30B 11.5412.038.3077.20216.80
Year 16.8% SEK 11.14BSEK 2.29BSEK 1.33BSEK 1.38B 12.3212.848.8680.66219.96
Year 26.0% SEK 11.80BSEK 2.43BSEK 1.41BSEK 1.47B 13.0513.619.3984.32220.90
Year 34.9% SEK 12.38BSEK 2.55BSEK 1.48BSEK 1.54B 13.6914.289.8588.17218.96
Year 44.6% SEK 12.96BSEK 2.66BSEK 1.54BSEK 1.61B 14.3314.9410.3192.19215.77
Year 54.4% SEK 13.52BSEK 2.78BSEK 1.61BSEK 1.68B 14.9615.6010.7696.39211.28
Year 64.1% SEK 14.08BSEK 2.90BSEK 1.68BSEK 1.75B 15.5816.2411.20100.76220.01
Year 73.9% SEK 14.63BSEK 3.01BSEK 1.74BSEK 1.82B 16.1816.8711.64105.31228.53
Year 83.6% SEK 15.16BSEK 3.12BSEK 1.81BSEK 1.88B 16.7717.4812.06110.01236.80
Year 93.4% SEK 15.67BSEK 3.22BSEK 1.87BSEK 1.95B 17.3318.0712.46114.88244.75
Year 103.1% SEK 16.15BSEK 3.32BSEK 1.93BSEK 2.01B 17.8718.6312.85119.90252.34

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.