Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.
Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:54.
Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 6.54. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 3.5% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 6.1%, net -3.9%, free cash flow 6.2% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.
Confidence: EV/EBITDA (12x) agrees; annual data only; value is more than 2x the price.
| Case | Starting growth | Year 10 | Annual growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.1% | GBP 266.24M | -0.5% |
| Base | 3.9% | GBP 377.59M | 3.0% |
| Bull | 9.9% | GBP 527.96M | 6.5% |
| Year | Growth | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Free cash flow | EPS | FCF / share | Dividend / share | Book / share | Implied price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal year 2025 | – | GBP 4.56B | GBP 277.10M | -GBP 176.30M | GBP 281.30M | -0.83 | 1.33 | n/a | n/a | 6.54 |
| Year 1 | 3.9% | GBP 4.74B | GBP 287.93M | -GBP 183.19M | GBP 292.30M | -0.87 | 1.38 | n/a | n/a | 7.21 |
| Year 2 | 3.4% | GBP 4.91B | GBP 297.83M | -GBP 189.49M | GBP 302.35M | -0.90 | 1.43 | n/a | n/a | 7.88 |
| Year 3 | 2.9% | GBP 5.05B | GBP 306.57M | -GBP 195.05M | GBP 311.22M | -0.92 | 1.47 | n/a | n/a | 8.55 |
| Year 4 | 2.9% | GBP 5.20B | GBP 315.46M | -GBP 200.71M | GBP 320.24M | -0.95 | 1.51 | n/a | n/a | 9.25 |
| Year 5 | 2.9% | GBP 5.35B | GBP 324.51M | -GBP 206.46M | GBP 329.42M | -0.98 | 1.56 | n/a | n/a | 9.98 |
| Year 6 | 2.8% | GBP 5.50B | GBP 333.70M | -GBP 212.31M | GBP 338.76M | -1.00 | 1.60 | n/a | n/a | 10.26 |
| Year 7 | 2.8% | GBP 5.65B | GBP 343.04M | -GBP 218.26M | GBP 348.24M | -1.03 | 1.64 | n/a | n/a | 10.55 |
| Year 8 | 2.8% | GBP 5.81B | GBP 352.53M | -GBP 224.29M | GBP 357.88M | -1.06 | 1.69 | n/a | n/a | 10.84 |
| Year 9 | 2.7% | GBP 5.97B | GBP 362.17M | -GBP 230.42M | GBP 367.66M | -1.09 | 1.74 | n/a | n/a | 11.13 |
| Year 10 | 2.7% | GBP 6.13B | GBP 371.95M | -GBP 236.65M | GBP 377.59M | -1.12 | 1.78 | n/a | n/a | 11.43 |
EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.