Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Tryg A/S (TRYG.CO)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 13:10.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in DKK and a share price of DKK 163.50. Growth begins at 5.2% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 16.6%, net 10.6%, free cash flow 15.2% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (4.2%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
DKK 89.05Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range DKK 76.52 to DKK 111.24
-46%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

2.4%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
DKK 64.05BRevenue in year 10 (base)
DKK 6.76BNet income in year 10 (base)
DKK 9.74BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
DKK 11.34Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
DKK 107.67Implied share price in year 10 (base), today DKK 163.50
10.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

DKK 0.00 DKK 15.69 DKK 31.37 DKK 47.06 DKK 62.75 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -1.8% DKK 62.75 0.0%
Base 4.2% DKK 62.75 0.0%
Bull 10.2% DKK 62.75 0.0%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– DKK 44.70BDKK 7.43BDKK 4.72BDKK 6.80B 7.9211.418.4862.75163.50
Year 14.2% DKK 46.60BDKK 7.75BDKK 4.92BDKK 7.09B 8.2511.898.2562.75152.33
Year 24.6% DKK 48.72BDKK 8.10BDKK 5.14BDKK 7.41B 8.6312.448.6362.75141.17
Year 34.6% DKK 50.95BDKK 8.47BDKK 5.38BDKK 7.75B 9.0213.009.0262.75130.00
Year 44.3% DKK 53.11BDKK 8.83BDKK 5.61BDKK 8.08B 9.4113.569.4162.75118.83
Year 53.9% DKK 55.21BDKK 9.18BDKK 5.83BDKK 8.40B 9.7814.099.7862.75107.67
Year 63.6% DKK 57.21BDKK 9.51BDKK 6.04BDKK 8.70B 10.1314.6010.1362.75107.67
Year 73.3% DKK 59.12BDKK 9.83BDKK 6.24BDKK 8.99B 10.4715.0910.4762.75107.67
Year 83.0% DKK 60.90BDKK 10.12BDKK 6.43BDKK 9.26B 10.7915.5410.7962.75107.67
Year 92.7% DKK 62.55BDKK 10.40BDKK 6.60BDKK 9.51B 11.0815.9711.0862.75107.67
Year 102.4% DKK 64.05BDKK 10.65BDKK 6.76BDKK 9.74B 11.3416.3511.3462.75107.67

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.