Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

TotalEnergies SE (TTE.PA)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:41.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 79.16. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.5% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 25.1%, net 10.5%, free cash flow 10.6% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 5.1 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-2.4%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 83.71Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range EUR 61.53 to EUR 120.78
6%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

3.3%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 224.24BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 19.66BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 21.21BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 3.32Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 78.71Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 79.16
11.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

EUR 0 EUR 7.92B EUR 15.84B EUR 23.76B EUR 31.68B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -7.5% EUR 15.57B -2.6%
Base -2.4% EUR 21.21B 0.5%
Bull 2.7% EUR 28.55B 3.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– EUR 191.82BEUR 48.20BEUR 20.06BEUR 20.24B 8.888.963.3951.7279.16
Year 1-2.4% EUR 187.20BEUR 46.20BEUR 18.94BEUR 19.34B 8.398.573.2056.9174.97
Year 2-0.2% EUR 186.87BEUR 45.28BEUR 18.28BEUR 18.90B 8.108.373.0961.9272.55
Year 32.1% EUR 190.81BEUR 45.38BEUR 18.02BEUR 18.88B 7.988.363.0466.8571.73
Year 42.2% EUR 194.95BEUR 45.48BEUR 17.75BEUR 18.86B 7.868.353.0071.7270.86
Year 52.2% EUR 199.28BEUR 45.60BEUR 17.47BEUR 18.84B 7.748.352.9576.5169.95
Year 62.3% EUR 203.82BEUR 46.64BEUR 17.87BEUR 19.27B 7.918.543.0281.4171.54
Year 72.3% EUR 208.57BEUR 47.73BEUR 18.29BEUR 19.72B 8.108.743.0986.4273.21
Year 82.4% EUR 213.56BEUR 48.87BEUR 18.72BEUR 20.19B 8.298.943.1691.5574.96
Year 92.4% EUR 218.78BEUR 50.06BEUR 19.18BEUR 20.69B 8.509.163.2496.8176.79
Year 102.5% EUR 224.24BEUR 51.31BEUR 19.66BEUR 21.21B 8.719.393.32102.1978.71

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.