Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Textron (TXT)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:41.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 85.23. Growth begins at 5.1% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 10.9%, net 6.3%, free cash flow 5.2% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 4.7 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (4.8%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 62.39Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 43.68 to USD 95.69
-27%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

1.7%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 22.59BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 1.42BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 1.18BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 0.14Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 99.60Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 85.23
8.1%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 389.05M USD 778.10M USD 1.17B USD 1.56B FY2022 FY2024 FY2026 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 0.1% USD 893.79M 1.0%
Base 4.8% USD 1.18B 3.9%
Bull 9.6% USD 1.56B 6.7%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 15.45BUSD 1.69BUSD 973.00MUSD 810.00M 5.644.690.1047.0485.23
Year 14.8% USD 16.20BUSD 1.77BUSD 1.02BUSD 849.20M 5.914.920.1052.8585.76
Year 24.8% USD 16.98BUSD 1.86BUSD 1.07BUSD 890.31M 6.205.160.1158.9486.15
Year 34.6% USD 17.76BUSD 1.94BUSD 1.12BUSD 931.04M 6.485.400.1165.3186.15
Year 44.3% USD 18.52BUSD 2.02BUSD 1.17BUSD 971.14M 6.765.630.1271.9585.75
Year 54.0% USD 19.27BUSD 2.11BUSD 1.21BUSD 1.01B 7.035.860.1278.8684.94
Year 63.8% USD 20.00BUSD 2.18BUSD 1.26BUSD 1.05B 7.306.080.1386.0488.15
Year 73.5% USD 20.70BUSD 2.26BUSD 1.30BUSD 1.09B 7.566.290.1393.4691.23
Year 83.2% USD 21.37BUSD 2.33BUSD 1.35BUSD 1.12B 7.806.490.14101.1294.19
Year 93.0% USD 22.00BUSD 2.40BUSD 1.39BUSD 1.15B 8.036.690.14109.0296.98
Year 102.7% USD 22.59BUSD 2.47BUSD 1.42BUSD 1.18B 8.256.870.14117.1299.60

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.