Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Uber (UBER)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:42; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 05 Nov 2026 20:51.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in USD and a share price of USD 68.70. Growth begins at 17.1% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 12.1%, net 19.3%, free cash flow 18.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (15.3%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 77.88Model fair value (Normalised free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 57.13 to USD 114.85
13%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

10.7%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 130.32BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 25.19BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 24.46BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 189.37Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 68.70
16.8%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

-USD 3.36B USD 5.82B USD 15.00B USD 24.18B USD 33.36B FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 9.3% USD 17.72B 6.1%
Base 15.3% USD 24.46B 9.6%
Bull 21.3% USD 33.36B 13.1%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– USD 52.02BUSD 6.28BUSD 10.05BUSD 9.76B 4.744.61n/an/a68.70
Year 115.3% USD 60.00BUSD 7.25BUSD 11.60BUSD 11.26B 5.475.31n/an/a80.83
Year 215.4% USD 69.24BUSD 8.36BUSD 13.38BUSD 13.00B 6.316.13n/an/a95.11
Year 313.9% USD 78.85BUSD 9.53BUSD 15.24BUSD 14.80B 7.196.98n/an/a110.40
Year 412.3% USD 88.53BUSD 10.70BUSD 17.11BUSD 16.62B 8.077.84n/an/a126.30
Year 510.7% USD 97.99BUSD 11.84BUSD 18.94BUSD 18.39B 8.938.68n/an/a142.38
Year 69.1% USD 106.89BUSD 12.91BUSD 20.66BUSD 20.06B 9.759.46n/an/a155.32
Year 77.5% USD 114.90BUSD 13.88BUSD 22.21BUSD 21.57B 10.4810.17n/an/a166.95
Year 85.9% USD 121.67BUSD 14.70BUSD 23.51BUSD 22.84B 11.0910.77n/an/a176.79
Year 94.3% USD 126.90BUSD 15.33BUSD 24.52BUSD 23.82B 11.5711.24n/an/a184.39
Year 102.7% USD 130.32BUSD 15.74BUSD 25.19BUSD 24.46B 11.8811.54n/an/a189.37

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.