Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

UDR, Inc. (UDR)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 05 Nov 2026 16:07.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 37.01. Growth begins at 3.5% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.3% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 90.4%, net 40.8%, free cash flow 50.4% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 2.7 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (net), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (2.4%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 40.32Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range USD 30.74 to USD 58.03
9%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Free-cash-flow DCF value; real estate: free cash flow after property spending is a poor guide; funds from operations fit better.

3.6%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 2.25BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 627.57MNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 1.13BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 1.94Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 34.03Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 37.01
9.4%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

USD 0.00 USD 0.66 USD 1.32 USD 1.98 USD 2.64 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -0.3% USD 1.61 -4.8%
Base 2.4% USD 1.94 -3.1%
Bull 5.1% USD 2.32 -1.3%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 1.71BUSD 1.55BUSD 697.86MUSD 863.11M 2.152.662.649.6537.01
Year 12.4% USD 1.75BUSD 1.58BUSD 669.85MUSD 884.08M 2.072.732.079.6535.68
Year 22.9% USD 1.81BUSD 1.63BUSD 643.04MUSD 909.79M 1.982.811.989.6534.41
Year 33.2% USD 1.86BUSD 1.68BUSD 616.14MUSD 939.34M 1.902.901.909.6533.11
Year 43.1% USD 1.92BUSD 1.74BUSD 586.05MUSD 968.59M 1.812.991.819.6531.64
Year 53.0% USD 1.98BUSD 1.79BUSD 552.76MUSD 997.43M 1.713.081.719.6529.97
Year 62.8% USD 2.04BUSD 1.84BUSD 568.47MUSD 1.03B 1.753.171.759.6530.82
Year 72.7% USD 2.09BUSD 1.89BUSD 583.86MUSD 1.05B 1.803.251.809.6531.66
Year 82.6% USD 2.14BUSD 1.94BUSD 598.87MUSD 1.08B 1.853.341.859.6532.47
Year 92.4% USD 2.20BUSD 1.98BUSD 613.46MUSD 1.11B 1.893.421.899.6533.26
Year 102.3% USD 2.25BUSD 2.03BUSD 627.57MUSD 1.13B 1.943.491.949.6534.03

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.