Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM.HE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 13:37.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 22.40. Growth begins at 2.2% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.6% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 16.4%, net 7.3%, free cash flow 10.7% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 4.8 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (4.7%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 20.26Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range EUR 15.87 to EUR 27.80
-10%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

6.1%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 12.33BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 825.48MNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 805.47MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 1.57Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 26.23Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 22.40
6.8%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 0.52 EUR 1.04 EUR 1.55 EUR 2.07 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -0.1% EUR 1.17 -2.4%
Base 4.7% EUR 1.57 0.4%
Bull 9.5% EUR 2.07 3.3%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– EUR 9.37BEUR 1.54BEUR 688.00MEUR 1.01B 1.301.911.5019.2122.40
Year 14.7% EUR 9.81BEUR 1.60BEUR 707.61MEUR 970.75M 1.341.841.3419.2122.93
Year 23.5% EUR 10.16BEUR 1.66BEUR 719.14MEUR 919.25M 1.361.741.3619.2123.19
Year 32.3% EUR 10.39BEUR 1.69BEUR 722.36MEUR 853.23M 1.371.621.3719.2123.18
Year 42.4% EUR 10.63BEUR 1.73BEUR 725.64MEUR 783.99M 1.381.491.3819.2123.17
Year 52.4% EUR 10.89BEUR 1.76BEUR 728.97MEUR 711.30M 1.381.351.3819.2123.17
Year 62.4% EUR 11.15BEUR 1.81BEUR 746.73MEUR 728.63M 1.421.381.4219.2123.73
Year 72.5% EUR 11.43BEUR 1.85BEUR 765.22MEUR 746.67M 1.451.421.4519.2124.32
Year 82.5% EUR 11.72BEUR 1.90BEUR 784.49MEUR 765.47M 1.491.451.4919.2124.93
Year 92.6% EUR 12.02BEUR 1.95BEUR 804.56MEUR 785.06M 1.531.491.5319.2125.57
Year 102.6% EUR 12.33BEUR 2.00BEUR 825.48MEUR 805.47M 1.571.531.5719.2126.23

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.