Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

U.S. Bancorp (USB)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:42; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 15:44.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in USD and a share price of USD 59.32. Growth begins at 9.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 24.2%, net 17.7%, free cash flow 18.6% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (7.3%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 53.66Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range USD 46.55 to USD 66.24
-10%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

8.7%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 72.95BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 12.89BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 13.57BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 3.83Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 104.02Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 59.32
14.7%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

USD 0.00 USD 22.27 USD 44.54 USD 66.81 USD 89.08 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 1.3% USD 71.19 5.4%
Base 7.3% USD 79.13 6.6%
Bull 13.3% USD 89.08 7.8%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– USD 42.86BUSD 10.39BUSD 7.58BUSD 7.97B 4.875.122.2541.9059.32
Year 17.3% USD 45.99BUSD 11.15BUSD 8.13BUSD 8.55B 5.225.502.4144.7162.39
Year 27.8% USD 49.57BUSD 12.02BUSD 8.76BUSD 9.22B 5.635.922.6047.7465.65
Year 37.5% USD 53.30BUSD 12.92BUSD 9.42BUSD 9.91B 6.056.372.8050.9969.09
Year 46.8% USD 56.92BUSD 13.80BUSD 10.06BUSD 10.58B 6.476.802.9954.4772.70
Year 56.1% USD 60.37BUSD 14.64BUSD 10.67BUSD 11.23B 6.867.213.1758.1676.44
Year 65.3% USD 63.59BUSD 15.42BUSD 11.24BUSD 11.82B 7.227.603.3462.0481.55
Year 74.6% USD 66.51BUSD 16.13BUSD 11.76BUSD 12.37B 7.567.953.4966.1086.89
Year 83.9% USD 69.08BUSD 16.75BUSD 12.21BUSD 12.85B 7.858.263.6370.3292.44
Year 93.1% USD 71.24BUSD 17.27BUSD 12.59BUSD 13.25B 8.098.513.7474.6798.16
Year 102.4% USD 72.95BUSD 17.69BUSD 12.89BUSD 13.57B 8.298.723.8379.13104.02

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.