Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Vici Properties (VICI)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:42.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 25.21. Growth begins at 9.8% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.3% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 77.8%, net 56.5%, free cash flow 65.0% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (3.3%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 26.89Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range USD 20.51 to USD 38.71
7%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; real estate: free cash flow after property spending is a poor guide; funds from operations fit better.

10.2%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 6.84BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 3.86BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 4.45BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 2.90Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 42.19Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 25.21
16.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

USD 0.00 USD 1.01 USD 2.01 USD 3.02 USD 4.02 FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -2.7% USD 2.06 1.6%
Base 3.3% USD 2.90 5.1%
Bull 9.3% USD 4.02 8.6%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 4.16BUSD 3.23BUSD 2.35BUSD 2.70B 2.132.451.7626.3625.21
Year 13.3% USD 4.29BUSD 3.34BUSD 2.42BUSD 2.79B 2.202.541.8226.7426.13
Year 26.1% USD 4.56BUSD 3.54BUSD 2.57BUSD 2.96B 2.342.691.9327.1527.83
Year 38.2% USD 4.93BUSD 3.83BUSD 2.78BUSD 3.20B 2.532.912.0927.5930.20
Year 47.3% USD 5.29BUSD 4.11BUSD 2.99BUSD 3.44B 2.713.122.2428.0632.51
Year 56.5% USD 5.63BUSD 4.38BUSD 3.18BUSD 3.66B 2.893.332.3928.5634.74
Year 65.6% USD 5.95BUSD 4.63BUSD 3.36BUSD 3.87B 3.053.512.5229.0936.70
Year 74.8% USD 6.24BUSD 4.85BUSD 3.52BUSD 4.05B 3.203.682.6429.6538.46
Year 84.0% USD 6.48BUSD 5.04BUSD 3.66BUSD 4.22B 3.333.832.7530.2339.99
Year 93.1% USD 6.69BUSD 5.20BUSD 3.78BUSD 4.35B 3.433.952.8330.8241.24
Year 102.3% USD 6.84BUSD 5.32BUSD 3.86BUSD 4.45B 3.514.042.9031.4342.19

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.