Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.
Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:42; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 15:54.
Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 4.49. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 4.2% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.6% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 11.0%, net 2.9%, free cash flow 2.2% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.
Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.
| Case | Starting growth | Year 10 | Annual growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -1.8% | GBP 0.35 | 4.1% |
| Base | 4.2% | GBP 0.49 | 7.8% |
| Bull | 10.2% | GBP 0.68 | 11.4% |
| Year | Growth | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Free cash flow | EPS | FCF / share | Dividend / share | Book / share | Implied price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal year 2025 | – | GBP 1.81B | GBP 198.70M | GBP 52.20M | GBP 39.40M | 0.21 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 4.50 | 4.49 |
| Year 1 | 4.2% | GBP 1.89B | GBP 211.45M | GBP 62.53M | GBP 48.41M | 0.25 | 0.19 | 0.25 | 4.50 | 5.31 |
| Year 2 | 3.6% | GBP 1.95B | GBP 223.60M | GBP 73.19M | GBP 57.77M | 0.29 | 0.23 | 0.29 | 4.50 | 6.13 |
| Year 3 | 2.9% | GBP 2.01B | GBP 234.85M | GBP 84.00M | GBP 67.31M | 0.34 | 0.27 | 0.34 | 4.50 | 6.94 |
| Year 4 | 2.9% | GBP 2.07B | GBP 246.46M | GBP 95.34M | GBP 77.32M | 0.38 | 0.31 | 0.38 | 4.50 | 7.77 |
| Year 5 | 2.8% | GBP 2.13B | GBP 258.42M | GBP 107.21M | GBP 87.80M | 0.43 | 0.35 | 0.43 | 4.50 | 8.61 |
| Year 6 | 2.8% | GBP 2.18B | GBP 265.60M | GBP 110.19M | GBP 90.24M | 0.44 | 0.36 | 0.44 | 4.50 | 8.85 |
| Year 7 | 2.7% | GBP 2.24B | GBP 272.86M | GBP 113.20M | GBP 92.71M | 0.45 | 0.37 | 0.45 | 4.50 | 9.09 |
| Year 8 | 2.7% | GBP 2.30B | GBP 280.20M | GBP 116.24M | GBP 95.20M | 0.46 | 0.38 | 0.46 | 4.50 | 9.34 |
| Year 9 | 2.6% | GBP 2.37B | GBP 287.61M | GBP 119.32M | GBP 97.72M | 0.48 | 0.39 | 0.48 | 4.50 | 9.58 |
| Year 10 | 2.6% | GBP 2.43B | GBP 295.09M | GBP 122.42M | GBP 100.26M | 0.49 | 0.40 | 0.49 | 4.50 | 9.83 |
EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.