Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Workday, Inc. (WDAY)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; TTM through 31 Jul 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:51.

Starts from TTM through 31 Jul 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 200.17. Growth begins at 11.5% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.3% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 16.4%, net 12.3%, free cash flow 28.0% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 3.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (net), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (10.4%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 159.44Model fair value (Normalised free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 120.97 to USD 223.55
-20%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value; free cash flow is more than 2x earnings, so the cash-flow value may be overstated.

3.2%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 20.45BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 1.81BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 5.73BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 275.60Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 200.17
11.4%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 1.72B USD 3.44B USD 5.15B USD 6.87B FY2022 FY2024 FY2026 TTM through 31 Jul 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 7.5% USD 4.75B 5.3%
Base 10.4% USD 5.73B 7.2%
Bull 13.4% USD 6.87B 9.2%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 31 Jul 2026– USD 10.16BUSD 1.67BUSD 1.25BUSD 2.84B 5.0011.37n/an/a200.17
Year 110.4% USD 11.22BUSD 1.84BUSD 1.30BUSD 3.14B 5.2112.55n/an/a206.59
Year 210.5% USD 12.40BUSD 2.04BUSD 1.36BUSD 3.47B 5.4213.87n/an/a212.62
Year 39.7% USD 13.60BUSD 2.23BUSD 1.39BUSD 3.81B 5.5715.22n/an/a216.29
Year 48.8% USD 14.79BUSD 2.43BUSD 1.41BUSD 4.14B 5.6516.55n/an/a217.18
Year 57.9% USD 15.96BUSD 2.62BUSD 1.42BUSD 4.47B 5.6617.85n/an/a215.07
Year 66.9% USD 17.06BUSD 2.80BUSD 1.51BUSD 4.78B 6.0519.09n/an/a229.99
Year 76.0% USD 18.09BUSD 2.97BUSD 1.61BUSD 5.07B 6.4220.24n/an/a243.82
Year 85.1% USD 19.01BUSD 3.12BUSD 1.69BUSD 5.32B 6.7421.27n/an/a256.23
Year 94.2% USD 19.80BUSD 3.25BUSD 1.76BUSD 5.55B 7.0222.16n/an/a266.92
Year 103.3% USD 20.45BUSD 3.36BUSD 1.81BUSD 5.73B 7.2522.88n/an/a275.60

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.