Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

George Weston Limited (WN.TO)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:29.

Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in CAD and a share price of CAD 109.72. Growth begins at 5.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 11.6%, net 1.6%, free cash flow 6.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 2.2 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
CAD 148.70Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range CAD 95.68 to CAD 247.26
36%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value; free cash flow is more than 2x earnings, so the cash-flow value may be overstated.

5.5%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
CAD 93.71BRevenue in year 10 (base)
CAD 1.49BNet income in year 10 (base)
CAD 6.38BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
CAD 1.91Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
CAD 171.58Implied share price in year 10 (base), today CAD 109.72
15.4%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

CAD 0 CAD 1.86B CAD 3.71B CAD 5.57B CAD 7.42B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Jun 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 2.8% CAD 5.47B 2.1%
Base 5.0% CAD 6.38B 3.7%
Bull 7.2% CAD 7.42B 5.3%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Jun 2026– CAD 65.24BCAD 7.59BCAD 1.04BCAD 4.44B 2.7611.771.3312.00109.72
Year 15.0% CAD 68.49BCAD 7.97BCAD 1.09BCAD 4.66B 2.8912.361.4013.49117.23
Year 24.7% CAD 71.71BCAD 8.34BCAD 1.14BCAD 4.88B 3.0312.941.4615.06124.87
Year 34.4% CAD 74.87BCAD 8.71BCAD 1.19BCAD 5.09B 3.1613.511.5316.70132.61
Year 44.1% CAD 77.95BCAD 9.07BCAD 1.24BCAD 5.30B 3.2914.061.5918.40140.41
Year 53.8% CAD 80.94BCAD 9.42BCAD 1.29BCAD 5.51B 3.4214.601.6520.17148.21
Year 63.5% CAD 83.81BCAD 9.75BCAD 1.34BCAD 5.70B 3.5415.121.7122.00153.46
Year 73.3% CAD 86.54BCAD 10.07BCAD 1.38BCAD 5.89B 3.6615.611.7723.90158.47
Year 83.0% CAD 89.12BCAD 10.37BCAD 1.42BCAD 6.06B 3.7716.081.8225.84163.18
Year 92.7% CAD 91.51BCAD 10.65BCAD 1.46BCAD 6.23B 3.8716.511.8727.84167.56
Year 102.4% CAD 93.71BCAD 10.90BCAD 1.49BCAD 6.38B 3.9616.911.9129.89171.58

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.