Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Wärtsilä Oyj Abp (WRT1V.HE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 09:03.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 25.38. Growth begins at 6.5% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 17.2%, net 9.1%, free cash flow 23.7% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 2.5 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (7.0%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 26.29Model fair value (EV/EBITDA (12x)); range EUR 22.45 to EUR 30.13
4%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Normalised free-cash-flow DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

4.1%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 10.43BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 735.73MNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 1.82BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 0.66Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 31.90Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 25.38
12.1%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

-EUR 218.00M EUR 371.16M EUR 960.32M EUR 1.55B EUR 2.14B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 4.5% EUR 1.54B -0.2%
Base 7.0% EUR 1.82B 1.5%
Bull 9.4% EUR 2.14B 3.2%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– EUR 6.61BEUR 1.13BEUR 601.00MEUR 1.56B 1.022.650.544.4925.38
Year 17.0% EUR 7.07BEUR 1.16BEUR 613.92MEUR 1.59B 1.042.680.554.9826.06
Year 26.5% EUR 7.53BEUR 1.19BEUR 623.11MEUR 1.59B 1.052.700.565.4826.60
Year 35.6% EUR 7.95BEUR 1.20BEUR 625.75MEUR 1.58B 1.062.680.565.9726.85
Year 45.2% EUR 8.37BEUR 1.20BEUR 624.23MEUR 1.56B 1.062.640.566.4726.93
Year 54.8% EUR 8.77BEUR 1.20BEUR 618.38MEUR 1.53B 1.052.580.566.9626.81
Year 64.4% EUR 9.15BEUR 1.25BEUR 645.44MEUR 1.59B 1.092.700.587.4727.99
Year 74.0% EUR 9.51BEUR 1.30BEUR 670.98MEUR 1.66B 1.142.800.608.0029.09
Year 83.5% EUR 9.85BEUR 1.35BEUR 694.72MEUR 1.71B 1.182.900.628.5630.12
Year 93.1% EUR 10.16BEUR 1.39BEUR 716.38MEUR 1.77B 1.212.990.649.1331.06
Year 102.7% EUR 10.43BEUR 1.43BEUR 735.73MEUR 1.82B 1.253.070.669.7131.90

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.