Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Whitbread plc (WTB.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; Fiscal year 2026; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 14:28.

Starts from Fiscal year 2026 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 28.00. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 6.8% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 3.0% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 35.9%, net 7.3%, free cash flow 3.4% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Starting growth was capped from 6.8% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (2.7%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 12.82Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range GBP 10.10 to GBP 17.41
-54%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

1.9%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 3.91BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 284.79MNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 131.76MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 1.30Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 22.22Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 28.00
2.7%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

GBP 0.00 GBP 0.45 GBP 0.91 GBP 1.36 GBP 1.82 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 Fiscal year 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -3.3% GBP 0.91 -0.6%
Base 2.7% GBP 1.30 3.0%
Bull 8.7% GBP 1.82 6.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2026– GBP 2.92BGBP 1.05BGBP 212.90MGBP 98.50M 1.220.570.9718.0428.00
Year 12.7% GBP 3.00BGBP 993.49MGBP 218.61MGBP 101.14M 1.260.581.0018.3026.41
Year 22.8% GBP 3.08BGBP 935.72MGBP 224.81MGBP 104.01M 1.290.601.0318.5624.76
Year 33.0% GBP 3.18BGBP 875.21MGBP 231.56MGBP 107.13M 1.330.621.0618.8423.02
Year 43.0% GBP 3.27BGBP 810.24MGBP 238.51MGBP 110.35M 1.370.631.0919.1221.16
Year 53.0% GBP 3.37BGBP 740.58MGBP 245.66MGBP 113.66M 1.410.651.1219.4219.17
Year 63.0% GBP 3.47BGBP 762.80MGBP 253.03MGBP 117.07M 1.460.671.1519.7219.75
Year 73.0% GBP 3.57BGBP 785.68MGBP 260.62MGBP 120.58M 1.500.691.1920.0320.34
Year 83.0% GBP 3.68BGBP 809.25MGBP 268.44MGBP 124.20M 1.540.711.2220.3520.95
Year 93.0% GBP 3.79BGBP 833.53MGBP 276.49MGBP 127.92M 1.590.741.2620.6821.58
Year 103.0% GBP 3.91BGBP 858.54MGBP 284.79MGBP 131.76M 1.640.761.3021.0222.22

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.