Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Yara International ASA (YAR.OL)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:57; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 14:06.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in NOK and a share price of NOK 396.30. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.6% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 19.1%, net 8.4%, free cash flow 5.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (0.3%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
NOK 340.98Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range NOK 247.83 to NOK 491.34
-14%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

-1.2%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
NOK 195.55BRevenue in year 10 (base)
NOK 10.97BNet income in year 10 (base)
NOK 11.89BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
NOK 3.80Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
NOK 314.32Implied share price in year 10 (base), today NOK 396.30
11.8%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

NOK 0 NOK 4.96B NOK 9.92B NOK 14.89B NOK 19.85B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -5.7% NOK 8.34B -0.5%
Base 0.3% NOK 11.89B 3.1%
Bull 6.3% NOK 16.70B 6.7%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– NOK 159.90BNOK 30.50BNOK 13.35BNOK 8.75B 52.4334.364.63345.64396.30
Year 10.3% NOK 160.32BNOK 29.47BNOK 12.51BNOK 8.97B 49.1235.224.33390.43368.67
Year 21.2% NOK 162.18BNOK 28.68BNOK 11.77BNOK 9.27B 46.2036.404.08432.55344.34
Year 32.1% NOK 165.64BNOK 28.14BNOK 11.11BNOK 9.67B 43.6337.973.85472.33322.83
Year 42.2% NOK 169.29BNOK 27.58BNOK 10.43BNOK 10.09B 40.9439.613.61509.66300.82
Year 52.3% NOK 173.12BNOK 27.00BNOK 9.71BNOK 10.53B 38.1541.343.37544.44278.27
Year 62.3% NOK 177.16BNOK 27.63BNOK 9.94BNOK 10.77B 39.0442.303.44580.03284.76
Year 72.4% NOK 181.41BNOK 28.29BNOK 10.18BNOK 11.03B 39.9743.323.53616.48291.60
Year 82.5% NOK 185.89BNOK 28.99BNOK 10.43BNOK 11.30B 40.9644.393.61653.83298.79
Year 92.5% NOK 190.60BNOK 29.72BNOK 10.70BNOK 11.59B 42.0045.513.71692.12306.36
Year 102.6% NOK 195.55BNOK 30.49BNOK 10.97BNOK 11.89B 43.0946.693.80731.41314.32

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.