Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Zimmer Biomet (ZBH)

Price updated 07 Nov 2026 00:06; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 16:36.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 105.59. Growth begins at 4.9% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.9% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 26.7%, net 9.0%, free cash flow 23.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 1.8 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (3.5%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 107.34Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 71.37 to USD 169.92
2%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value; free cash flow is more than 2x earnings, so the cash-flow value may be overstated.

4.6%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 12.34BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 1.11BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 2.93BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 1.40Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 152.72Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 105.59
14.5%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 837.70M USD 1.68B USD 2.51B USD 3.35B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 1.8% USD 2.56B 2.3%
Base 3.5% USD 2.93B 3.7%
Bull 5.3% USD 3.35B 5.1%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 8.57BUSD 2.29BUSD 767.50MUSD 2.04B 4.0110.640.9866.49105.59
Year 13.5% USD 8.87BUSD 2.37BUSD 794.67MUSD 2.11B 4.1511.011.0169.63109.42
Year 24.1% USD 9.24BUSD 2.46BUSD 827.43MUSD 2.19B 4.3211.471.0572.90114.02
Year 34.5% USD 9.65BUSD 2.57BUSD 864.49MUSD 2.29B 4.5211.981.1076.32119.23
Year 44.3% USD 10.06BUSD 2.68BUSD 901.26MUSD 2.39B 4.7112.491.1579.88124.40
Year 54.0% USD 10.47BUSD 2.79BUSD 937.56MUSD 2.49B 4.9012.991.1983.59129.52
Year 63.8% USD 10.87BUSD 2.90BUSD 973.21MUSD 2.58B 5.0813.491.2487.44134.45
Year 73.6% USD 11.26BUSD 3.00BUSD 1.01BUSD 2.67B 5.2713.971.2891.42139.25
Year 83.4% USD 11.63BUSD 3.10BUSD 1.04BUSD 2.76B 5.4414.441.3295.54143.92
Year 93.1% USD 12.00BUSD 3.20BUSD 1.07BUSD 2.85B 5.6114.891.3799.79148.42
Year 102.9% USD 12.34BUSD 3.29BUSD 1.11BUSD 2.93B 5.7815.321.40104.16152.72

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.