Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Zurich Insurance Group AG (ZURN.SW)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:42; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 04 Nov 2026 15:22.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in CHF and a share price of CHF 626.20. Growth begins at 12.9% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 12.8%, net 7.7%, free cash flow 6.1% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (10.3%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
CHF 398.22Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range CHF 308.61 to CHF 556.77
-36%Fair value vs today's price
MediumModel confidence
50%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

9.0%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
CHF 147.78BRevenue in year 10 (base)
CHF 11.33BNet income in year 10 (base)
CHF 9.04BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
CHF 56.57Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
CHF 1,034.88Implied share price in year 10 (base), today CHF 626.20
10.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

CHF 0.00 CHF 19.45 CHF 38.90 CHF 58.36 CHF 77.81 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 4.3% CHF 40.62 3.8%
Base 10.3% CHF 56.57 7.3%
Bull 16.3% CHF 77.81 10.8%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– CHF 73.14BCHF 9.37BCHF 5.61BCHF 4.47B 38.9431.0628.00n/a626.20
Year 110.3% CHF 80.70BCHF 10.34BCHF 6.19BCHF 4.94B 42.9634.2730.89n/a665.73
Year 211.0% CHF 89.61BCHF 11.48BCHF 6.87BCHF 5.48B 47.7038.0534.30n/a711.28
Year 310.6% CHF 99.08BCHF 12.69BCHF 7.60BCHF 6.06B 52.7442.0837.93n/a755.61
Year 49.4% CHF 108.40BCHF 13.89BCHF 8.31BCHF 6.63B 57.7146.0341.50n/a792.90
Year 58.2% CHF 117.33BCHF 15.03BCHF 9.00BCHF 7.18B 62.4649.8344.92n/a821.65
Year 67.1% CHF 125.63BCHF 16.09BCHF 9.63BCHF 7.68B 66.8853.3548.09n/a879.75
Year 75.9% CHF 133.05BCHF 17.04BCHF 10.20BCHF 8.14B 70.8356.5050.93n/a931.69
Year 84.7% CHF 139.35BCHF 17.85BCHF 10.68BCHF 8.52B 74.1859.1853.34n/a975.81
Year 93.6% CHF 144.32BCHF 18.49BCHF 11.06BCHF 8.83B 76.8361.2955.25n/a1,010.62
Year 102.4% CHF 147.78BCHF 18.93BCHF 11.33BCHF 9.04B 78.6762.7656.57n/a1,034.88

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.