Cincinnati Financial
Cincinnati Financial Corporation provides property casualty insurance products in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Commercial Lines Insurance, Personal Lines Insurance, Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance, Life Insurance, and Investments. The Commercial Lines Insurance …
Cincinnati Financial Corporation provides property casualty insurance products in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Commercial Lines Insurance, Personal Lines Insurance, Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance, Life Insurance, and Investments. The Commercial Lines Insurance segment offers coverage for commercial casualty and property, commercial auto, and workers' compensation. This segment also provides contract and commercial surety bonds, and fidelity bonds; management liability; and machinery and equipment insurance products. The Personal Lines Insurance segment offers personal auto; homeowner; and other personal lines insurance, such as dwelling fire, inland marine, personal umbrella liability, and watercraft coverages. The Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance segment offers commercial casualty insurance that covers businesses for third-party liability from accidents occurring on their premises or arising out of their operations, such as injuries sustained from products, as well as other coverages comprising miscellaneous errors and omissions, professional liability, and excess liability; and commercial property insurance, which insures buildings, inventory, equipment, and business income from loss or damage due to various causes, such as fire, wind, hail, water, theft, and vandalism. The Life Insurance segment provides term life insurance; universal life insurance; and worksite and whole life insurance products, as well as annuities. The Investments segment invests in fixed-maturity investments, including taxable and tax-exempt bonds, and redeemable preferred stocks; and equity investments comprising common and nonredeemable preferred stocks. The company also offers commercial leasing and financing services; and insurance brokerage services. The company was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Fairfield, Ohio.Looks undervalued
Why: Banks and insurers earn their money on their balance sheet, so value follows book value and how much the company earns on it (return on equity).
Details and the full model are below.
Market price below modeled range
Showing the FCFF (steady state) you selected on the company card, using 2% growth, 2.4% terminal growth and 9.6% discount. The range varies these assumptions slightly; it is illustrative, not investment advice. Low confidence: the modelled value is far from the market price, which usually means the model does not capture this company well (for example expected growth well above its history).
Assumptions: growth 2%, discount rate 9.60%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 2.0% (sector default 5.4%, own revenue history 7.0%, analyst revenue consensus -5.0%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 12.7% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of -5.0% a year; the growth assumption used is 2.0%.
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Why this model: Banks and insurers earn their money on their balance sheet, so value follows book value and how much the company earns on it (return on equity).
Compare models- Recommended: Justified P/B (ROE) — USD 198.54 (+5.4%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 230.52 (+22.4%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 487.65 (+159.0%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 492.45 (+161.5%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 481.44 (+155.7%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 487.84 (+159.1%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 696.62 (+269.9%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 428.90 | 56.1% |
| Base USD 492.45 | 61.8% |
| Bull USD 604.90 | 68.9% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 96 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 4 of 5 years profitable | 16 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +19.3% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net cash | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 26% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Financials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CINF (this company) | USD 188.31 | 5.2% | 11.0 | 1.8 | 1.9% | 96 |
| PSH.L Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. | GBP 38.88 | 68.2% | 3.7 | 0.6 | 1.3% | 76 |
| LRE.L Lancashire Holdings Limited | GBP 6.89 | 45.5% | 7.1 | 1.6 | 3.3% | 76 |
| ACA.PA Credit Agricole S.A. | EUR 15.88 | 36.0% | 6.8 | 0.7 | 6.9% | 78 |
| PRU.L Prudential plc | GBP 9.29 | 34.0% | 8.0 | 1.6 | 1.9% | 78 |
| V Visa Inc. | USD 422.59 | 33.3% | 8.9 | – | 0.2% | 100 |
| AGS.BR ageas SA/NV | EUR 77.60 | 32.5% | 8.2 | 1.5 | 5.0% | 76 |
| SYF Synchrony Financial | USD 74.07 | 29.9% | 7.2 | 1.4 | 2.1% | 100 |
| NWG.L NatWest Group plc | GBP 5.92 | 29.6% | 8.3 | 1.3 | 4.9% | 88 |
| Peer median | 7.6 | 1.4 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 3.69 per share · yield 1.96% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 2.820 |
| 2025 | 3.480 |
| 2024 | 3.240 |
| 2023 | 3.000 |
| 2022 | 2.760 |
| 2021 | 2.520 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 12:41
| Revenue | USD 13,275,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 3,508,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 3,347,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 2,664,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 3,080,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 18,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 875,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 33,450,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD 20,017,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 155,100,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 3.5525 |