Expedia Group
Expedia Group, Inc. operates as an online travel company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through B2C, B2B, and trivago segments. The B2C segment includes Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel brand offers various travel products and services; Hotels.com for lodg…
Expedia Group, Inc. operates as an online travel company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through B2C, B2B, and trivago segments. The B2C segment includes Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel brand offers various travel products and services; Hotels.com for lodging accommodations; Vrbo, an online marketplace for the alternative accommodations; and Orbitz, Travelocity, ebookers, and Wotif Group. The B2B segment provides various travel and non-travel companies including airlines, offline travel agents, online retailers, corporate travel management, and financial institutions who leverage its travel technology and tap into its diverse supply to augment their offerings and market Expedia Group rates and availabilities to its travelers. The trivago segment sends referrals to online travel companies and travel service providers from hotel metasearch websites. In addition, it provides brand advertising through online and offline channels, loyalty programs, mobile apps, and search engine marketing, as well as metasearch, social media, direct and personalized traveler communications on its websites, and through direct e-mail communication with its travelers. The company was formerly known as Expedia, Inc. and changed its name to Expedia Group, Inc. in March 2018. Expedia Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.Looks overvalued
Why: Free cash flow is far below earnings (heavy investment), and even a three-year average understates value, so an EV/EBITDA multiple, which is not distorted by capex timing, fits best.
Details and the full model are below.
Market price above modeled range
Showing the EPS-based Gordon proxy you selected on the company card, using 8.92% growth, 3.1% terminal growth and 10.8% discount. The range varies these assumptions slightly; it is illustrative, not investment advice.
Assumptions: growth 8.92%, discount rate 10.80%, terminal growth 3.10% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 8.9% (sector default 7.2%, own revenue history 14.4%, analyst revenue consensus 7.0%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 9.7% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 7.0% a year; the growth assumption used is 8.9%.
Adjust assumptions
Show the recommended model instead
Why this model: Free cash flow is far below earnings (heavy investment), and even a three-year average understates value, so an EV/EBITDA multiple, which is not distorted by capex timing, fits best.
Compare models- Recommended: EV/EBITDA (12x) — USD 387.07 (+42.1%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 230.72 (-15.3%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 659.38 (+142.0%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 2.1x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 528.79 (+94.1%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 2.1x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
- EV/EBITDA (12x) — USD 387.07 (+42.1%)
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 654.65 (+140.3%)
Not used: Free cash flow is 2.1x net income, which usually means costs such as lease payments sit outside operating cash flow, so it may be overstated.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 848.40 (+211.4%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 181.37 | -50.2% |
| Base USD 230.72 | -18.1% |
| Bull USD 265.15 | -2.8% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
5 years price change: +49.35% · USD 272.48 · Market data through 05 Nov 2026 ; dashed line is today’s model base value (USD 230.72). The fair value is today’s estimate, not what the model said in the past.
Saved price history is current through 05 Nov 2026; last refreshed 06 Nov 2026 08:12 (4 hours, 33 minutes ago).
03 Jan 2022Range USD 82.55 – 337.4805 Nov 2026
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 100 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +8.6% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net cash | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 21% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Consumer Discretionary
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXPE (this company) | USD 272.48 | 29.6% | 15.8 | 20.2 | 0.7% | 100 |
| KGF.L Kingfisher plc | GBP 3.72 | 45.2% | 27.0 | 1.1 | 3.3% | 74 |
| BWY.L Bellway p.l.c. | GBP 23.01 | 43.6% | 14.0 | 0.8 | 3.1% | 70 |
| INCH.L Inchcape plc | GBP 6.41 | 37.3% | 9.0 | 1.9 | 4.1% | 80 |
| ZAL.DE Zalando SE | EUR 27.49 | 36.6% | 108.5 | 2.6 | – | 80 |
| DECK Deckers Brands | USD 87.74 | 34.9% | 11.2 | 5.1 | – | 100 |
| BKNG Booking Holdings | USD 168.72 | 28.9% | 17.7 | – | 1.0% | 100 |
| PETS.L Pets at Home Group Plc | GBP 2.58 | 25.2% | 18.8 | 1.2 | 2.9% | 82 |
| PNDORA.CO Pandora A/S | DKK 888.40 | 25.0% | 12.2 | 14.6 | 2.3% | 100 |
| Peer median | 15.8 | 1.9 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 1.84 per share · yield 0.68% at the current price.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2026 (so far) | 1.440 |
| 2025 | 1.600 |
| 2020 | 0.340 |
| 2019 | 0.340 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 05 Nov 2026 16:06
| Revenue | USD 16,226,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 3,433,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 2,533,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 2,107,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 4,371,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 951,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 975,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 7,110,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD -4,176,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 122,280,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 1.8155 |